Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
May you live in interesting times. That’s a Chinese curse. I’ve typed that three times in the past five years. It is perhaps the most interesting time of all. I’ve been waiting my whole life for this day. At least I heard it today. “12 banks and 12 weeks the Federal Reserve will start testing a digital currency.” Hopefully, it’ll be 12 years till you’ll see it. It’s the beginning of the end of Fiat Currency. But it’ll probably be 12 months…
Well, that started Wednesday this week. And if you like writing down important days, you might want to write down November 30, 2022. That’s when the favorite son, Elon gave his Nerolink presentation with the apes. Elon Musk Expects Brain-Chip Tech Co. Neuralink to Begin Human Trials In 6 Months. Now on to the markets.
Yesterday, a move up and back down in the first 10 minutes indicates little interest in taking price higher. Next, a 10-minute up move is halted for 10 minutes as volume starts to increase. If you were looking to get short that would have been the place. So how long do you hold it? Well, the day was S2L. You got short on the spill up seal – so how long?
If you were a subscriber to the AM TURN on page 2 you’d seen: “Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, (no mid am), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.” You’d be looking to hold to 10:30 am down to 11:30 am marker.
At 10:00 am you can see confirmation of the correctness of your play as price starts to show a slab-slided formation as the lower low of day is printed.
By 10:30 am (center time) you can see technical strength indicated by (a) ability to hold above established support line (b) development of resistance to pressure for the second time the previous support (double bottom).
If you wanted to get long now is the time. If you were holding short (for maximum profit intraday) perhaps a good time to close it out.
At 10:35 am supply line penetrated, downward stride was broken. Rally signal confirmed by increasing volume on breakthrough.
How long do you hold it? The precipitate pace of decline has developed an oversold condition and has a higher potential to produce subsequent corrective rallies. This indicates a technical character of the rally.
As the rally to halfway correction starts to fail and roll over, best to close your trade and enjoy the rest of the day.
Looking Forward December 02, 2022
Due to recent changes in market behavior I’ve decided to change my focus to Time based trading. This allows you to benefit from the flow of the arrow of time and not fight against the algos in the nanosecond.
Wyckoff had an interesting way of looking at volume. He’d say:
“The value of any security is the price at which it may be sold within one minute; hence the price at which demand is willing to take it, combined with the amount which the demand appears willing to buy at that price, is a strong indication of the securities immediate future.”
Then he’d go on talking about buying on retracements. As I write price is trading 4069 handle. The real volume is down there at 4054 handle. And on the daily you can see 4050 on 11/15 and 11/25 markers.
Price ripped up 144 handles with about 2 MM shared. So, we know there was real demand. The only question is how far do they let it go back down? We are in December and the Santa Clause rally and the Lame Duck is the on the table. Is it right for the market to go up when there is really no reason to? Technically? Fundamentally?
Of course, not. But somebody got to get paid their Christmass Bonus…
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