YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
Stocks moved sharply higher in early trading on Thursday but gave back ground over the course of the trading session. The major averages pulled back well off their best levels but recovered going into the close to end the day in positive territory.
Yesterday's Technicial Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
I must admit when I called the day S2H, I was not so sure It would fall apart. I got long on the spill down just before the opening. I could see they were looking to take it higher. We had a hard down the previous day. And Globex held the lows and the bigger players were long. The best we could hope for would be a slight spill down. So I went for it just before the open.
For about three minutes it was touch and go. The first push up. Now in my mind, I forgot about looking for that AM HIGH. I was more concerned about where those stuck bulls were. First, push up and pull back and now we are at 10:00 am holding just at halfway retracement.
Then another push up at 10:30 am. It looked like that might be the high. Then at 10:40 am, we got a push up for 30 minutes. If you went short you got run over at 10:30 am to 11:00 am. Perhaps AAPL could have been the canary in the coal mine. Perhaps that last rally was a little extended. Nothing was sounding it was too high. Price just slowly started to drift down.
Your only saving grace would have been the breaking of the support line as price just refused to get back in. You can see a volume spike at 1:30 pm as a new intra day low was tagged.
It looked like that was all for the bears as the bulls challenged the lows. Twenty minutes later the bulls were unable to rally any interest in taking price higher. Thirty minutes later it was over as the Mrs. was getting ready to hit the mike. From 2:30 pm to 3:30 pm it looked like the support was going to drop but it did not.
You can see the LAST HOUR LOW tag a new low of day around 3:30 pm center time as price rallies away.
good morning today is SERIES S3H and the SPILL is down.
News: Durable Goods Orders at 8:30, James Bullard Speaks at 9:30, PMI Composite Flash at 9:45. All time EST.
Last Night: Held above settle as shorts scrambled to cover. Then just gave it all back as the bulls failed to show.
Edge: It's Friday. Who want's to go home short?
7/8/9 AM Trade: Price has saged and gaped down. Knocked on the CASH low.
Today: Will need to see if price is low enough for acceptance of value. (same as yesterday)
Globex 61 handle trading range on 308 K volume.
Bulls: need to retake the 3948 want to take the 3998 handle.
Bears: need to retake the 3932, want to take the 3897 handle.
Cycle Bias: Potential favored to bears.
Tone: VIX trading at 21.40
Shape of the day: Potential for selling pressure most of day.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Pre Opening: Been mostly a yawn with price drifting down lower. Potential #2 (volume with price entering the low of previous day and chop) or #3 (price going lower to perhaps 3900 handle)
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Offing Events: War in Ukraine is starting to gear up for full scale kinetic war. And now we have Leopards in the Fray. And now Jets (F-16's). Look for Spring Equnoix as demarkation war / no war. Cost of Inflation is raising $7 eggs and climbing. And the flow entering from Southern border.
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: Mar 7 Worm Moon 7:40 am First day of Spring Mar 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
Last Friday's Opening print: https://mrtopstep.com/from-the-desk-of-wyckoff-trader-55/