Relatively quiet day again yesterday as markets continued to consolidate looking for a good catalyst to spark movements in the US Dollar.
Carney was speaking in front of the Treasury Committee in the UK yesterday and although his comments didn’t really impact the markets he continued to tow the line on the unemployment and inflation targets, his view being that the markets have priced in the idea that we will tighten monetary policy earlier than we are expecting too.
We also had good Jobless Claim figures out of the US but with the caveat that two states upgrading their computer systems and so delayed reporting. To be honest real lack of any clarity around this as although the market understood the figure couldn’t be trusted it is very difficult to try and then work out what the figure should or might have been, thus continued chop.
Further US data up today with PPI and Retails sales at Midday.
You can check out the performance of our Retail order book systems here: http://www.littlefishfx.com/rtas-order-book-system-performance/
RTAS Order Book systems still holding longs this pair as we continue to see some Retail Sellers, however this has really stalled now and the Order Book remains relatively flat, if anything it is starting to look like Retail Traders might start buying the pair. 1.3250 / 1.3230 come in as initial support. Resistance comes in at 1.3325 which has capped the pair this week.
The pair continues to chop at current levels with the 1.3325 level really capping the pair. Pair now looks like it could be ready to reverse and find a few more Retail Buyers but seems to be waiting for a good catalyst with the FOMC meeting next week the obvious choice.
RTAS Order Book systems holding longs in this pair as it continued to push higher today. Now below the magic 30% figure in Retail Traders long this pair, which inevitably means that any move higher now will need to clear out orders if it is to proceed. Having now broken the 1.5775 level convincingly this turns to a key support level.
Like the EURUSD this pair stalled and chopped around yesterday really trying to find its feet. If we stay above the 1.5775 support level the next major resistance comes in around the 1.6000 level. We still maintain that fundamentally this pair is overbought and we would expect it to make a correction lower.
Systems switched from longs to shorts and back to longs again yesterday capturing the sharp move lower then holding its long position as we saw further Retail Selling in the pair. Retail Order Books now nicely off of their extremes, if we continue to see some selling we could see another push higher., Support comes in at the 0.9220 level with resistance at the 0.9290 / 0.9380 level.
Key to watch resistance and supports levels in this pair now as it has started to break away from its lows as it carves out its bottom. If the pair can manage to stay above the 0.9200 level we could see it correct further towards 0.9400 then potentially towards 0.9700. Fails at resistance is likely to find Retail Buyers on dips and could cause a further push lower. A lot could depend on how much the RBA want to push this pair lower or wider more general US Dollar strength.
The RTAS Order Book system still holding shorts in this pair, despite the slight pop higher on the Aussie data. Retail Traders now back buying the pair could mean that we open the door soon for a much larger move lower. Support comes in at the 1.4180 / 1.4135 levels with key resistance at the 1.4470 mark.
Pair had formed a nice double top formation with an extremely large RSI divergence. The key support levels below now offer a nice area for this pair to bounce even if only in the short term with a nice oversold RSI. If we break the 1.4135 support level we could easily see this pair then move back below the 1.4000 handle.
Order Book systems have chopped around at current levels as the pair has tried to break lower but found support. Retail Traders now seem essentially flat in the Order Books as they wait for the next major move. The pair has seemed relatively supported at the 0.8400 / 0.8380 level but resistance comes in just above at the 0.8430 / 0.8445 level, potentially a nice one for breakout plays.
Pair has been relatively weak recently but now looks like it is due a bounce back to the 200 day SMA on a correctional move. The pair again found good support yesterday, with the previous days pin bar still a valid entry.