(Published after trading hours 9.3)–Choppy day today but remained relatively quiet despite US entering back in the markets as the key focus is still on Syria and what the US does next. Early reports of potential missile launches turned out to be test fires from Israel but still managed to move the market as everyone is looking for signs of the next move.
Retail Traders seemed content today selling the US Dollar into the news this week as the Euro continued lower.
US ISM Manufacturing Index came in better than expected as well but this also had little impact on the markets. Overnight we also saw the Aussie rate decision, where despite best efforts to talk down the currency pair it still managed to move higher today.
With the big risk events later in the week and everyone on tenterhooks around Syria we suspect a lot of people are playing wait and see, therefore we are likely to continue to see a grind in most pairs with Retailers able to capitalise in low volume times.
On the plus side though our editor made us a brilliant bingo card for the central bank meeting later in the week. Whiskey lined up already http://www.littlefishfx.com/central-bank-bingo/.
EURUSD
Short: 1.3265
RTAS Order Book systems remain short in this pair as it broke past the 1.3200 level and initially triggered some minor stops. We have continued to see Retail Buyers in this pair today, however we did find some support later in the day around the 1.3150 mark.
200 day SMA came in as support today in the pair and formed another interesting pin bar potentially pointing to a retracement higher. Resistance comes in initially at the 1.3200 level then the 1.3265 / 13280 mark if we do see a slight retracement. However if we break and hold below the 200 day SMA and 1.3150 / 40 mark we could start to see this pair accelerate declines towards 1.3000 and 1.2800.
GBPUSD
Short: 1.5520
RTAS Order Book systems continue to hold short this pair despite being out of the money as we continue to see Retail Traders selling the US Dollar in favour of GBPUSD and EURUSD longs. Today we continued to see Retail Buyers and the pair tested the 1.5600 level again before failing back on light volume. We are now in a tight range on the 4hr chart and a break above 1.6000 could spark a more Bullish move and a break below the 1.5520 a more Bearish move, watch for false breaks though, we could continue to see more sideways action until BoE, Syria and NFP data alter in the week.
1.55 and 1.5490 (200 day SMA) both critical support levels in this pair and a break below immediately opens up 1.5430. However as mentioned this pair is in tight chop above these levels and below the 1.5600 mark. Nice set-ups for some breakout plays.
AUDUSD
Long: 0.9020
Pair pushed higher today despite the RBA’s best efforts to push the Aussie lower. Systems profited on longs last night, profited on tiny shorts today and switched back long again. Pair is really starting to find support again and we started seeing some really nice Retail Selling in the pair today. If this continues we could finally have the confirmation of the bottom some many have been looking for.
Pair has pushed higher before reaching the lows. Resistance comes in around the 0.9140 mark but we could be on for a confirmation of the bottom by 0.8900, not quite the 0.8500 mark we predicted earlier in the year.
EURAUD
Short: 1.4690
The RTAS Order Book system holding shorts this pair as AUDUSD held its ground and EURUSD lost some ground today. We continued to see some Retail Buyers in the pair but we are still at extreme short levels, if this starts to significantly unwind we could see much larger moves lower. We now sit at key support around the 1.4510 mark, break below opens the door to a larger move towards 1.4335.
Pair has formed a nice double top formation with an extremely large RSI divergence. A break of 1.4500 would likely see us test the 1.4200 levels (1.4240 / 1.4160). If this double top formation is going to play out it does really need to see some follow through this week, a nice unwinding of Retail Trader Short positions could play out extremely well if it gets that far.
EURGBP
Short 0.8480
Order Book systems booked switched short on EURGBP today booking a minor loss before the pair moved lower. Although it didn’t quite make it to the key pivot support on the 4hr chart it did test and break the 200 day SMA. Retail Traders continued to buy the pair on the move lower.
Having broken the 200 day SMA pair now does have the potential to push even lower, especially if we continue to see Retail Buyers enter the market. 0.8430 offers next key support level, with 0.8475 offering a minor resistance now.
