FX Week Ahead: FX Markets Look to Article 50 Trigger, Fed Rate Hike, Aussie Jobs, BOE

Commentary, Forex, News, Technical Analysis
After another strong US labor market report on Friday, rates markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed hike this Wednesday. Yet beyond the hike which is already priced in, traders will be looking for explicit details over the pace of future tightening: should we be expecting a total of two hikes this year (currently priced in), or will there be three or more?
Elsewhere, focus will on the UK, where Prime Minister Theresa May may be granted authority to trigger Article 50 – an event that could come this week, in fact. With all signs pointing to a ‘hard Brexit,’ there’s little reason left to wonder why the British Pound has been hit hard since the end of February. Should Article 50 be triggered, it would dramatically reduce the odds of the BOE doing anything at all this Thursday – a shift in policy would be viewed through a highly politicized lens that they’d like to avoid altogether.
Top Events this Week
03/14 Tuesday | –:– GMT | GBP UK PM Theresa May Given Power to Trigger Article 50
03/15 Wednesday | 12:30 GMT | USD Consumer Price Index (FEB)
03/15 Wednesday | 18:00 GMT | USD FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference
03/16 Thursday | 00:30 GMT | AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (FEB)
03/16 Thursday | 12:00 GMT | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

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