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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX up 1.3pc in huge week for Zip, Lynas | iCandy looks to double up in Chinese gaming market with Rocky Rampage launch |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Apple lifts Wall Street | The tests ASX healthcare companies have upcoming in 2021 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 21 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.8pc | Greenhouse study shows AVZ Minerals could achieve lowest carbon footprint at Manono lithium-tin project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Eco-fibre play Nanollose leads ASX healthcare sector with 292% gain |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 20 JANUARY: | ASX hits 11 month high | China shares rise on c.bank’s liquidity boost; EV, healthcare stocks shine |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | 3 cannabis players discuss how to view the sector through a biotech lens |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 19 JANUARY: | ASX rises 1pc | US eyes Australian market as cannabis investment fund takes stake in Lifespot Health |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 JANUARY: | ASX to rise, $A eases amid greenback surge | Battery sector cries out for more graphite as shortfall looms |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 18 JANUARY: | ASX sheds 0.8pc | Tietto Minerals appoints COO to drive development of Abujar gold project | China, Hong Kong stocks climb on upbeat GDP data |

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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX up 1.3pc in huge week for Zip, Lynas | iCandy looks to double up in Chinese gaming market with Rocky Rampage launch |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 JANUARY: | ASX to fall, Apple lifts Wall Street | The tests ASX healthcare companies have upcoming in 2021 |

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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 21 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.8pc | Greenhouse study shows AVZ Minerals could achieve lowest carbon footprint at Manono lithium-tin project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    OP: Wall Street Welcomes Biden

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Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish

DailyFx by DailyFx
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
in Energy, Meats
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Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish
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Crude oil and gold prices are likely to rise if the Federal Reserve opts to offset worries about a cutback in QE with a dovish change in forward guidance.

Talking Points

 

  • Commodities to Rise if FOMC Opts for Dovish Shift in Forward Guidance
  • Crude Oil, Gold Prices Hovering Above Near-Term Chart Support Levels

 

Financial markets have set their sights on the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. Traders will look for confirmation of consensus expectations calling for the central bank to begin “tapering” the size of its monthly asset purchases in September. Officials have just the policy statement to convey their message to the markets this time and so are likely to select language that is as neutral as possible to limit scope for the kind of volatility that was seen after the June sit-down.

 

With that in mind, the market-moving bit of the announcement is likely to be the presence or absence of changes to the forward guidance component of the Fed’s policy mix. In this context, a dovish scenario will see the FOMC supplement familiar taper-related language with the introduction of a lower bound on inflation and/or a reduction in the threshold for the unemployment rate needed to be achieved before rate hikes enter the picture. That would cement policymakers’ intention to remain accommodative even as tapering commences.By contrast, a hawkish outcome would see policymakers abstain from changes to forward guidance.

 

On balance, a dovish outcome is likely to be supportive for cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices traders cheer on the prospect of lasting policy support for the world’s largest economy, particularly against a backdrop of lingering recession in the Eurozone and growing concerns about a “hard landing” in China. It will probably boost anti-fiat demand for gold and silver as well as investors consider the US Dollar dilution implications of a longer-lasting Fed accommodation. Needless to say, a hawkish result stands to produce the opposite dynamic.

 

 

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

 

 

 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis (WTI) – Prices turned lower as expected. Sellers are now testing support at 102.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break lower targeting the 50% level at 100.79. Near-term resistance is at 105.06, the 23.6% Fib.

 

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Rhetoric_Proves_Dovish_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

 

 

Gold Technical Analysis (Spot) – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from late June, hinting a move lower is ahead. Channel bottom support is now at 1317.10, with a break beneath that initially targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1273.98. Near-term resistance is at 1347.57, the July 24 high, followed by the channel top at 13847.51.

 

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Rhetoric_Proves_Dovish_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

 

 

Silver Technical Analysis (Spot) – Prices are testing support at the bottom of a bearish Flag pattern (19.71), with a break downward on a daily closing basis targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 19.03. Near-term resistance is at 20.59, the July 23 high, followed by the Flag top at 20.96.

 

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Rhetoric_Proves_Dovish_body_Picture_5.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

 

 

Copper Technical Analysis (COMEX E-Mini) – Prices broke support at the bottom of a bearish Flag continuation pattern and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion (3.067), exposing the 50% level at 3.016. Alternatively, a reversal back above Flag bottom support-turned-resistance (3.091) eyes the 23.6% expansion at 3.130.

 

Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Rhetoric_Proves_Dovish_body_Picture_6.png, Gold, Crude Oil to Rise if FOMC Rhetoric Proves Dovish

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 

 

 

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

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