The Daily Check-In With Goldman Sachs
Above: Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs
While Black Friday is typically a barometer of the holiday retail season, the pandemic has reshaped the way consumers are shopping and taken a bit of importance out of the day, explains Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs Research in a recent episode of The Daily Check-In. “In 2020, we’ve seen a pull forward of [Black Friday] promotions,” she says. “We think this is being done to help reduce the numbers of crowds, spread out the demand, if you will. Amazon Prime days were October 13th and October 14th, which really was the kickoff of the holiday season.” As far as what consumers are shopping for, her research highlights a shift toward categories like home furnishings and decor that benefit from people staying at home. “When we took a look to see how many dollars had shifted from the leisure activities to the retail categories, we saw a shift of anywhere between $184 billion and $228 billion. And really what that means is…dollars that are up for grabs this holiday season that can be diverted to these categories,” she says.
In another episode of The Daily Check-In, Kelly Galanis of the Investment Banking Division explains how insurtechs—startups that apply advanced software to the conventional insurance industry—are disrupting their marketplace. “Insurtechs are using modern technology—think AI, ML, IoT, low code—combined with much broader data sets, to manage nearly all aspects of their business,” she says. “This gives them an advantage in customer acquisition, in product development, underwriting and many other areas.” The digital transformation is leading to a surge in capital markets activity, such as landmark IPOs, private capital inflows and strategic M&A, she notes. “At $5 trillion globally, it’s one of the few remaining places where technology can be used to disrupt how things are done across the entire value chain,” Galanis says. “It’s one really ripe area.”
Global Strategy Outlook: The Bull Run in 2021
Goldman Sachs Research remains confident about the global recovery in 2021, says Peter Oppenheimer, the firm’s chief global equity strategist. “We are optimistic for equity markets, risk assets and indeed the economy,” Oppenheimer explains in the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs. What’s driving this bullish view? “I think that this strong outlook is supported by the prospects for more positive news on vaccines and the implementation of those, as well as very, very supportive monetary and fiscal policy through the course of next year,” he says, explaining why he thinks the current bull market is transitioning from a “hope” phase to a “growth” phase. “As we move forwards in time…we do expect to see more even returns globally, less so than extreme outperformance of the U.S.,” he says. “We would expect people to be diversifying more by country, region and by industry.”Listen to podcast