Goldman Sachs: Investment Outlook 2020

Commentary, economy
Goldman Sachs
February 18, 2020
Investment Outlook 2020

As the bull market closes in on a record 11 years this March, investors in US equities might think there’s little upside left in their portfolios. But Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs Wealth Management, counsels otherwise. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, she talks about her 2020 Investment Outlook and why she and her team are taking a “stay invested” position. “There’s still a lot of upside left if we are still a ways away from a recession,” Mossavar-Rahmani says, and “the probability of a recession [in 2020] in our view is actually quite low. We’re at about 20 to 25 percent probability, maybe a little bit closer to 20.” The Investment Outlook cites data showing a high likelihood (87%) of positive returns when an economy is in an expansion. Even when a recession is lurking around the corner, there’s still time for the market to do well—historically, there have been attractive S&P returns (8-9%) in the six to 18 months prior to a contraction. “That suggests we should stay invested,” Mossavar-Rahmani says, “because the likelihood of positive returns—and strong positive returns—is quite high.”



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