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    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 9 APRIL: ASX to slip | Wall St poised to end higher | Thinking of getting into ASX water stocks? Here’s what the experts think |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 8 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 edges higher | Investors want quality copper stocks, Peak Minerals is on the radar |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 07 APRIL: ASX hits best close since COVID with 0.6% rise | Crowd Media calls on investee technology to produce ‘Digital Dom’ talking head | Indian shares rise after RBI holds key rates steady |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 06 APRIL: ASX adds 0.8% as travel stocks take flight | Golden Deeps widens Namibia drilling plan to include historic copper-vanadium mine | China stocks fall as healthcare, consumer companies weigh |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 6 APRIL: ASX to rise | Dow and S&P 500 reset record highs | These ASX explorers say ‘company makers’ still lurk in one of WA’s oldest, richest gold provinces |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 01 APRIL: ASX steadies after jittery start, up 0.6% ahead of Easter break | Creso Pharma launches three CBD-based tea products under cannaQIX brand | China stocks climb on consumer, healthcare boost; Hong Kong rises |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 APRIL: ASX to rise | Tech rally lifts S&P 500 to new high | Eagle Mountain gears up in pursuit of copper context |

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    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

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    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

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    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

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    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

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    Danny’s Top Links – April 9, 2021

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

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    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

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    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    Bloomberg Opinion: Mind the Gap

    OP: S&P Futures Close Lower After Monday’s 17th New High

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    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 9 APRIL: ASX to slip | Wall St poised to end higher | Thinking of getting into ASX water stocks? Here’s what the experts think |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 8 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 edges higher | Investors want quality copper stocks, Peak Minerals is on the radar |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 07 APRIL: ASX hits best close since COVID with 0.6% rise | Crowd Media calls on investee technology to produce ‘Digital Dom’ talking head | Indian shares rise after RBI holds key rates steady |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 06 APRIL: ASX adds 0.8% as travel stocks take flight | Golden Deeps widens Namibia drilling plan to include historic copper-vanadium mine | China stocks fall as healthcare, consumer companies weigh |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 6 APRIL: ASX to rise | Dow and S&P 500 reset record highs | These ASX explorers say ‘company makers’ still lurk in one of WA’s oldest, richest gold provinces |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 01 APRIL: ASX steadies after jittery start, up 0.6% ahead of Easter break | Creso Pharma launches three CBD-based tea products under cannaQIX brand | China stocks climb on consumer, healthcare boost; Hong Kong rises |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 APRIL: ASX to rise | Tech rally lifts S&P 500 to new high | Eagle Mountain gears up in pursuit of copper context |

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    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
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  • Charts

    Jason Sen: Gold, silver, WTI Crude

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN)  / April 12, 2021

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN) / April 12, 2021

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    SpyGate Logo Program Trading Dector

    SpyGate : Bots More intested in Longs than Shorts

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

    Bloomberg: Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    SpyGate Logo Program Trading Dector

    SpyGate : Slow Bot Day Dominated by Sells

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    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 12, 2021

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 9, 2021

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg Opinion: Spacs and Coins May Break Our Bones

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

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    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

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    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

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Groupthink…but think about your risk

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Friday, November 20, 2020
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The Market Ear
retail going all-in in equities: largest 2-week inflow ever

The strong inflow of last week was not a one-off. That week followed by this week that together creates the largest 2-week inflow ever. The narrative is perfect: Cash on the sidelines feeling FOMO and the historic pattern post elections hold.



BoAM

This is not the GFC

This time is different. Contrary to the GFC, this time around hiring plans of small biz are back to all time highs. Companies reporting a hard time to find labor is also spiking. Nordea concludes;

"The general idea that disinflation would spread could thereby be totally wrong."



Nordea

Asian Tech: Key themes from the JPM TMT conference

Sentiment toward the Asian tech food chain remains quite positive, based on feedback from JPM Global TMT Conference this week. Key messages were:

(1) supply tightness in the Foundry/OSAT food chain shows no signs of easing, WFH demand (esp. PCs) remains strong, and inventory correction risk is not imminent

(2) the datacenter hardware and memory spaces are starting to show greenshoots, setting the stage for a strong 2021

(3) the EV component opportunity is likely to manifest in 2021 as the market broadens, especially in power, motors and auto-use ICs;

(4) Apple demand remains strong across the board, with the likelihood for above-seasonal demand into 1Q21 for iPhones. Demand for iPad and MacBook also appears to be trending better than expected. While the market has been concerned about Chinese competition, iPhone EMS vendors don’t appear to be too concerned about a near-term impact on pricing and allocation.

HSTECH index


Refinitiv

Chinese speculation – consolidation before a break out?

ChiNext consolidating at elevated levels while Chinese margin trading debt continues higher.

Watch the above and Asian tech for overall clues.



Refinitiv

Short length is perhaps the shortest since shorts were invented

S&P 500 short interest continues to fall to new lows. Based on the chart at least 15 year low. Perhaps "lowest since shorts were discovered"



FactSet

$8bn of buying in TSLA

157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.

"Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"

The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"



TME

Musk could get all of Porsche, Ferrari, Renault, Peugeot, Aston Martin and Fiat for his TSLA stake

Not that he would want to, but nevertheless, just worth revisting how TSLA market cap dwarfs everyting else in the auto sector, and this is after the 100% rally in EU Autos.

Market caps vs the Europeans.

TSLA 473bn

Volkswagen 80bn

Dailmer 60

BMW 47

Ferrari 35

Fiat 20

Porsche 17

PSA 17

Renault 9

Global:

Toyota 197bn

GM 61

Ford 35

Fed continues doing what it does best – killing bond volatility

Fed's latest BS updated vs bond volatility (MOVE index).

Maybe there is some more room down for bond vol, but the marginal utility is diminishing…



Refinitiv

Fed great at killing volatility, but not all volatility

The structural bid in equity volatility remains intact. Despite Fed having expanded the BS massively since the pandemic started, VIX still remains well above those levels, in contrast to bond vol that is much lower compared to pre pandemic levels.

The dynamics for equity vols are different and it must be frustrating for Fed to see this stubbornly elevated VIX (despite having had the biggest 7 day move lower ever post the elections).

VIX vs Fed BS.



Refinitiv

Hedge Funds all-in

'Hedge fund gross and net leverage have risen a lot over the past 12 months. Net exposure is now the highest it has been for at least 5 years. Data from GS prime brokerage book as per 18th of Nov.



GS PB

Gold – has everybody given up?

Inboxes full of bearish outlooks for gold by "smart" sales guys at various investment banks. Vaccine is bad for gold and px action "sucks" are the arguments why they all see gold going lower.

As we wrote earlier today;

"A few months ago everybody was selling the long logic view to us, today we are only receiving bearish takes on gold.

A short term bounce would be the pain trade in gold here…"

Let's see how this plays out, but imagine gold ripped above the negative trend line that has been in place since Aug highs…

Gold volatility, GVZ, has come off substantially and offers rather cheap gold upside plays. Recall gold trades with a "positive skew" as it is a hedge itself.

Dec 178/185 cs costs you 0.9% to put on and gives some X4.4 max money pay off.



Refinitiv

•

•

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FAANG is great, but Bitcoin is 100% greater

NYFANG index +80% YTD, Bitcoin +160% YTD.



Refinitiv

Oil – under the hood speculators

Net long positions across the complex (CL/ULSD/RBOB) are rising, up +68k contracts or about +14% in the last 2 weeks, looks impressive but when you look under the hood over +59k or 87% of that rise is just speculative short-covering offset by commercial selling, producers seem more than happy to let the specs own oil at multi-month range highs. Further while flat spec CL long positions look to be in "dry powder" range when the position is viewed against open interest it is far from a screaming buy. Money flows confirm other signals that this is a weak price advance that should be treated with caution especially with prices near range highs…



MPAS

•

•

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The economy vs the economy

US 10 year vs Dr Copper gap becoming rather wide…or can they both be right?



Refinitiv


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