Today’s Economic News:
The UK continues to lead in Europe. Numbers out of China and Japan were lukewarm but that is probably just right.
Quote of the Day:
You have freedom of choice, but not freedom from choice.
–Wendell Jones
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
We are working hard to push this Zweig back below 40. We need one more dump day to do that.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Short: 1654
Long: 1606
We continue to look for dump day #2. We haven’t exhausted the selling yet so we would expect that this current run off the 1627 area should exhaust between here and the 1654 area. We will watch 1627 for a fail or a possible double bottom which would delay things for a while. The next level down for us would be 1616 and then finally our 1606 area.
We think a break of 1635 will mean it’s lights out.
That gives you our values for the week.
On the MiM:
Take the money and run. This MiM is just below my symbol PCT threshold but it did produce on the down side and it did grow. I did trade this one on Friday and closed early to get out the door and get the weekend started:
redliontrader (08/30/2013 – 15:20:30): I am short 33.25redliontrader (08/30/2013 – 15:43:15): out the door.. taking 29.25.. time to start the weekend
That was a +4 on the ES contract. For those that don’t trade futures, that is a $200/contract profit.
Before I get hate mail about not sticking to my rules (that Sym PCT column did not get above 66%) here is what had me take the trade:
1. I have a bearish bias
2. Unlike the last 2 days, the dollar size grew every 10 minutes
3. The $PCT and Sym PCT both grew weaker every 10 minutes
That gave me enough encouragement to wait for that 3:20pm ET time frame and take a shot.
We should see the market begin to position for the year close now over the next two weeks. It is going to get better and better through the month.
If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
Here is the range we are watching: 111 on the top side and 100 on the south side. Our longer term outlook is a sub-100 on the TLT before the end of the year. We think we are now set up to see that. The 107.88 area should not get topped. If that does happen we are on our way to 111.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
See above.
Cumulative Volume Index:
We want a waterfall from here.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
Ugh, we are getting to bounce area for recovery. We just want that one more day.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
Looking bearish.
Trenders :
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Bearish
Long Term Trender – Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
Bearish
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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