Compared to the typical April pattern over the last 21 years, midterm year Aprils exhibit a noticeably different pattern. In all years, April tends to get off to a sluggish start, but finishes well. In midterm Aprils (visible in the charts below), the month is strong until just after mid-month at which point it rolls over and closes weakly.
Mid-April is also a clear inflection point in the full-year seasonal patterns. In midterm years and the second years of a newly elected president, DJIA and S&P 500 make a clear move lower after mid-April. However, in past years ending in “8” DJIA and S&P 500 continued higher through yearend. For the market to take a path similar to past years ending in “8”, trade wars fears would need to abate, earnings season will need to be a homerun and the Fed will need to take a slightly more dovish tone on future rate hikes.
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