King Cotton, King Of All

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

Freese Notice puts almost no rain over W TX for a week, same for DTN. Frontier places rain over W TX from 6/17 every day to 6/20. This is the so-called GFS model. Frontier covers up the Rio Grande Valley with rains, from 6/16 to 6/26. CWG blobs everything together, and gives a 7 day total precip of for W TX, well below GFS but in line with FN and DTN. They concur on the RGV, with range of to 4, with most precip along coastal areas. Another worrisome weather issue is the dryness in eastern Aust. Even though the cotton has been harvested, lack of rainfall means less reservoir supply, which tends to lessen acreage for planting in their spring. Indias monsoon has sputtered after a timely start, but we cant remember the year when the monsoon season was without sputters, stops, tardiness, and overall downright erratic.

Sales guess tomorrow? Why would we want to be embarrassed again? No idea.

Varner View

There has been one of those no quarter given routs in grain markets, in spite of some balance sheets that look neutral, or in corn country a little bullish. Specs were larded up in corn and soy, and those have been crushed for 10% and 12%. Cotton has either gone higher or traded sideways during this capitulation in grains, hitting higher and higher values on the relative ratios. Cotton beats handily soy, corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, barley, rape, millet, sweet potatoes, rye, peaches and a few illegal crops. Informa raised their US acreage to 14.13 M, and it would be foolish to disagree. If the current tropical storms meander over Texas, then the US may have a rarity in the commodity world big price, and big crop at same time.

Technicals

Not much happened today.


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