Larry Shover: Sky News Australia

Fed decision. Wed 7/31 at 2pmET. This will be a traditional release w/the Fed publishing just its normal post-meeting statement (no new forecasts, “dots”, or Bernanke press conf) and on the whole it will prob. be a little anticlimactic. Bernanke has spoken on several occasions lately (5/22, 6/19, 7/10, and 7/17-18) and markets increasingly are growing relatively comfortable w/the Fed’s message and near-term policy outlook (something this 7/31 communique likely won’t disrupt). Sept 18 is the date on which the first taper announcement is expected (recent Reuters/Bloomberg polls reveal ~65-70% of investors anticipate Sept w/~20% thinking Dec and ~5% ’14) but this 7/31 statement likely won’t contain an official confirmation (as the Fed remains data dependent and wouldn’t want to prejudge ~1.5 months worth of eco numbers).