Not much news. COT reports show specs are holding tight around 36k long, even after a calamitous decline of 10c in August. It takes a lot to jar the specs from their long-always preferred position. That would take a punch below 8200, so it will be interesting when that comes about. India’s northwest has been lacking rain over the last month, and much like Texas recently, Gujarat gets rain when it doesn’t need it. But no damage to quantity done, just some shine off the lint.
Crop indexes showed big drops for Virginia and Arizona. AZ is usually a bastion of stability and mega-yields, and the harvest has just begun, so we’re not sure why this decrease occurred there. Surprisingly, Texas started the year at 76 and is now at 82, after peaking at 84 in July. This number alludes to our idea that yields on remaining acreage will surprise to the upside. Overall the US index has been very static this season, with the minimum index at 88 and the max at 92. Currently it stands dead in the middle at 92. Varner View
This is rather a quiet market, considering all of the craziness since last March and especially this summer. The Chinese will take a break next week, and cotton could get even quieter. Once we get into October, rumors, half-truths, whole truths and damn lies will begin popping up everywhere as the time approaches for the Chinese to sell, or not, some of their reserves. Next month should be fun, so enjoy the peace and quiet for now.
Technicals
There is a very short term seasonal to sell cotton on 9/21 and cover on 10/04. Serious resistance lies near 8600, and good support lies at 8200. Bias is that the support will eventually give way.
