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Home Commentary

Marking 1668 as a hold and watching for 1606 $ES_F coming soon

Marlin Cobb by Marlin Cobb
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
in Commentary, S&P 500
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Marking 1668 as a hold and watching for 1606 $ES_F coming soon
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Today’s Economic News:

image

Germany giving us very, very nice data.  In the USA today, it is Redbook/S&P Home Price index premarket and then Consumer Confidence for a post-open booster along with the Richmond MFG Index.    Tuesdays have been quite strong for the bulls this year. We have topped at 1668 so now we will see if the bears can do some wrangling of their own.


Quote of the Day:
Who in their right mind would ever need more than 640K of RAM!?
–Bill Gates, 1981

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Bears need to follow through to the downside now.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1656
Long:  1606

image

That 1668 area proved to be as resistive as we thought it would be all last week.  The 1656 has not held and now we find ourselves testing the 1643 area from which we think a break will set up selling down to 1606.  We remain bearish and cautious.

 

 

On the MiM:

image

Controversy on the MiM as it showed a strong buy-side dollar value but weak symbol collection.  This MiM snapshot tells us that there is selective buying going on.  Big dollar buys on a few symbols.

image

This is what the meter looked like in the close and there are the top two symbols for the buy and sell side.  EMC had a selling imbalance of 48MM but look at JPM, 240MM buy side imbalance all by itself!  When you are looking at 217 symbols, it only takes a few big symbol imbalances to throw off the dollar size of the imbalance.  That is why we added in the symbol counts so you can read the meter both ways.  Look for alignment.  We had a divergent signal yesterday and that should have been enough to wave off a straight trade.

We’ll discuss this further today in our webinar. Signup at: https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/register/53291377185297 and join us today @ 2pm ET / 1pm CT and trade with us into the close.

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM

 

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Mission accomplished here as we hit that 105 target.  We would expect a bit of a rest down to the 104.25 again.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Day 5 of the Zwieg and a stall.  We want to stay below 56 for our bearish call.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

If we see selling, we want to see it with conviction!


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

No new info here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

We want to stay below 90 for a bearish mood.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish/neutral.  We want this to stay below that 15 day moving average if we want a more sustainable bear market.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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