Today started with 199k ESU and 1,100 SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1693.90 – 1687.10. Monday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1688.20 – 1679.20 before settling at 1687.10, up .9 handles. German investor confidence jumps to a 5-month high in August – up 5.7 points to 42 points vs exp of 39.1 and up from previous 36.3. ZEW SEES SIGNS OF RECESSION END IN KEY EUROZONE COUNTRIES…Eurozone June industrial output +0.3%y/y (Reuters poll was 0.2%), from -1.3% in May; 0.7% m/m (May -0.2% m/m). Current Conditions Index at 18.3 from 10.6 in July…*SPAIN-GERMANY 10-YEAR SPREAD NARROWS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2011…Abe called for a study on lowering corporate tax. The U.S. July retail sales checked in at 0.2% vs exp 0.3.
Today’s pit hours gapped 2 handles higher to 1689.20 – 1689.50, traded 1690.20 before rolling over. At 9:00 U.S. business inventories checked in flat vs exp of 0.2, could weigh on second-quarter GDP as the SPU spilled 11 handles lower to 1679.20 at 9:16 from the intraday high. At (09:33) shares of [LCC] shot down 11% on news the DOJ moves to block the merger with [AAMRQ] currently in bankruptcy, shares nose-dived 34% lower – weighs on the [DJT] down 60 points and the equities traded sideways, then back to grinding higher as the financials, techs and the [DJIA] went bid through the mid to late morning. william_blount (10:11) today POP DROP feature may have been a reaction to the BEN AINT GOING TO JACKSON HOLE and the STAR PANEL is being led by central bankers from 1. a communist nation. 2. a drug nation. 3. a dead nation. 4. a red herring being flown up the pole for what is ostensibly nothing more than a political hack probable nominee to head the FED.
By 11:45 the SPU was retesting/converting the early high as Fed Governor Lockhart began yapping. Lockhart stresses that decisions to reduce asset purchases will be data-dependent; algos front-run Fed speak. TAPER POSSIBLE AT ANY OF NEXT THREE MEETINGS. Not enough data to make taper decision in September; decision to taper in September, October or December – should be cautious first step. By 12:15 the SPU had stepped up to a series of new highs 1691.50, 1692.60 followed by 1694.40 at 12:20 and holding above the early morning high of 1690.20. Activist Carl Icahn announced he has taken a large position in [AAPL] was up 6% – another 4% following the Icahn news. After a little sideways price action a small buy program hit the S&P just before 2:00 that pushed the index up to the 1693 area and was trading 1692 area going into the closing imbalance. The imbalance showed a very small $30M to the sell side before the cash close traded 1691.40. redliontrader added: so while NQ and S&P might have had a decent day…the breadth is not so good.. NYSE A/D line -1.5:1 and the [RUT] -1.25:1. The SPU settled at 1690.80, up 3.7 handles on the day – breaking a 3 day losing streak.
For the 5th time in the last 7 days, equity market internals have triggered an anxiety-implying Hindenburg Omen. Based on our data, this is the most concentrated cluster of new highs, new lows, advancing/declining based confusion on record. The last few occurrences have not ended well (though obviously not disastrously) but as the creator of the ‘Omen’ notes, the more occurrences that cluster, the stronger the signal….Zerohedge
Roger_Volz shared: my experience has always been corrective phases led either by NDX or DJT…the rest follows. watching DJT for divergence signal, but not there yet and when it occurs could have 3-4 wks before rest mkt follows. 6222 is LT reversal DJT/ 6430 close starts ST technical damage.