Since 1982, the Monday of options expiration week has a bullish bias advancing 19 times in 32 years. However, Monday’s meager 0.03% average gain in all years suggests gains have tended to be rather small. On expiration day, Friday, the bias shifts to bearish with just 13 gains in 32 years. On Friday the average loss is a significant 0.34%. Option expiration week as a whole has produced more gains than losses while the week after has been especially volatile with large swings in both directions.
NASDAQ and S&P 500 are negative across the board Monday, Friday, the week of and after. The recent selloff is likely to provide a boost to Monday, but I would expect continued selling later in the week and next, especially if we breakthrough the monthly pivot points or fail at resistance.
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