Speaking on the sidelines of the Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole Saturday: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart told Reuters that recent evidence from the economy had been mixed, and growth forecasts might need to be revised lower, but the underlying recovery remained intact. He also said: “I am prepared to believe it is substantially priced into bond prices. So I would not make a prediction with a lot of confidence as to whether, when and if the policy is executed … whether that would create more tightening.”
Today started with 145k ESU and 600 SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1658.50 – 1666.90. Friday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPU pit session trading range was 1662.50-1652.50 before settling at 1661.40, up 6.6 handles. Roger_Volz (05:21) globex punch to 1667 too early for me; mid channels in several times. Ransquawk: Another day, another trading glitch as Eurex issues and UK holiday keeps volumes light…Syria, China bounce carried into EU
WEIDMANN: MONETARY POLICY HAS ENTERED UNKNOWN, DANGEROUS AREAS… WEIDMANN SAYS BANKS MUST BE ALLOWED TO FAIL.
Amgen’s $10.5bn takeover of Onyx approved, amgn upgraded, Onyx 125 – stephen_cohen (05:35) lower than expected whisper # 130 Roger_Volz (05:37) mkt been beating that drum too long.
Roger_Volz (06:24) nq working higher low 3118.50-3118.75; fesx daily right shoulder.
Nokia boss, Stephen Elop, tipped as Ballmer’s replacement at the helm of #Microsoft, according to the UK’s Sunday Times.
Kathy (07:20) harmonic rotations: 6E http://screencast.com/t/CQz0oMvxv , NQ http://screencast.com/t/6XIshjv1UIt , ES http://screencast.com/t/K9mn7gppPLf , CL http://screencast.com/t/r7QPmMuC
Roger_Volz (07:22) ES higher low; more concentrated 1656.50-1656/ 1662.25+ for globex high retest.
mts2 (07:26) DeMark pivots 1666.95 and 1656.95. U.S. JULY DURABLES ORDERS FALL 7.3%; EX-TRANS. DOWN 0.6% bad news=good news and then there is the unresolved Middle East…Bob Corker: Syria response “imminent.”
Last, but certainly not least, we are in T+3 – month end window dressing/bashing.
Sam_E posted this on Friday (14:52) 67% parabolic 1663 es first pause spot normalized on the parabolic move – on its march to 70. This morning’s updated post by Sam_E (08:57) nq. parabolic would be an understatement and the 67% parabolic panned out. the bears have their eyes on 3 levels or else they risk new highs. 313750 3140 and the last line in the sand 3143. Algos, crude will test the old 10542 or 10521 to see what they are made of. its still short till one of those get tested – globex high meant nothing. a suckers game.
Today’s snippet from william_blount’s premarket email commentary: “Now the main things going on right now are: this market is in summer doldrums waiting on Labor day to pass, so the action in the a.m. is being followed by pricing that does not even behave in ROPE FASHION, more like TWINE with 2 handle multi hour brackets.” Also, william_blount posted (08:29) admonition: DO NOT FORGET TO MARK DOWN THE WEEKLY PIVOT THIS WEEK — GOING TO BE CRITICAL IMO – weekly PIVOT is 1653.3. peeans (Globex) don’t matter — just one big open air museum — USE CHICAGO PIT PRICES.
Today’s pit hours opened fractionally higher to 1662.00 – 1662.30 and traded an early low of 1660.00 at 8:35 before the bulls did a Miley Cyrus type of slow grind up to a new high for the move of 1667.30 at 10:37, the European close. Roger_Volz (08:58) 71% bullish NQ market vane not a lot of bears around. Regarding the disappointing durable goods and the Fed’s tapering being data dependent: It is hard to imagine the Fed could get more hawkish following this data following last Friday’s new homes data – giving Sept. 6th a whole new outlook… as all eyes will be on the employment data in front of the FOMC announcement on 9/18.
The midday trade resembled more of a ghost town with very low volume. Following the European close, the equities held above 1664 area until 12:35 before retesting/holding the opening range at 12:50 with a net of 550k e-minis traded during the day session. In part, due to the light volume and lack of trading interest, the traders that did remain began to focus on mts2 (12:09) John Kerry will speak on Syria at 2 p.m. ET, White House briefing will follow at 3. After the press conference the algos hit the sell button and the sell stops and air took the SPU down to 1653.40 before bouncing to 1657 area. The closing imbalance showed a small $395M net to the buy side. The cash close traded 1654.70 area before settling at 1654.20, down 7.2 handles on the day.
So where might markets be headed? How about nowhere? Citigroup’s Tobias Levkovich explains: We believe that 2H13 may prove more challenging for equities given optimistic back half Street EPS estimates that may need trimming, the impact of likely Fed tapering and a search for new sector leadership. Credit conditions are not sending warning signs weaker emerging economies and Europe are holding back the hoped for second half market leadership handoff from US-oriented names to more global cyclical ones… Valuation remains attractive, while implied long-term earnings growth expectations have stayed subdued. Buyback activity has stepped up and money has begun to flow into equity funds. Hence, the market may be range-bound until year-end, but the index could hit 1,825 by mid-2014. Accordingly, we remain generally constructive with some nearer term caution.
Sam_E yes i have a note on my screen that says in big bold letters. THE PIT IS REAL. EVERYTHING ELSE IS BS. there is a real difference between pit highs and lows and the ones on your chart. know the difference. the pit rules the roost.
the pit plays in the real world. globex is the dream world. We agree with Sam!