MrTopStep’s Index Futures Recap

Market Recap, markets

cropped-square-logo-for-favicon-MrTopStep.png

MrTopStep’s Index Futures Recap – Monday March 21st

From Goldman Sachs:

Over the past year, the Fed has repeatedly arrested the Dollar rise and this week’s FOMC, with the shift in rhetoric towards caution over external risks, marked another iteration.

We have sympathy for the Fed’s dilemma. After all, BoJ and ECB easing led the Dollar to rise sharply in H2 2014, before US monetary policy normalization could even begin. For the Fed, this is a major headache because – if our expectation for Fed hikes is correct – USD could rise another 15 percent, i.e. underlying appreciation pressure is large. This might be why the Fed is modulating its message, for fear that sounding upbeat could trigger another sharp rise in the Dollar.

N94.PNG

We make three points: (i) dovish shifts from the Fed over the past year have only been able to put the Dollar into a holding pattern, they have not reversed the 2014 rise; (ii) data will ultimately force the Fed’s hand, which is why our US economists have stuck with their call for three hikes this year; and (iii) the underlying case for the divergence trade is stronger, not weaker, given that a dovish Fed will spur US outperformance versus the Euro zone and Japan.

 

Wells Fargo:

“Sales of previously owned homes fell 7.1 percent in February, which was well below consensus. Exceptionally lean inventories have kept prices relatively firm, with the median price up 4.4 percent over the past year.”

“Existing home sales fell 7.1 percent in February to a 5.08 million-unit rate, marking the lowest level since November. The closely-watched single-family component dropped 7.2 percent following two consecutive monthly gains. Single-family sales are now up 2 percent year over year.”

“Total housing inventory rose 3.3 percent in February to 1.88 million homes available for sale; however, the level remains low on a historical basis. The low level of inventory will continue to hold back overall sales and support prices. The median price of a single-family home is up 4.3 percent over the past year.”

 

 Seen Today In The IM Pro Trading Room:

 

Dboy:(11:37:24 AM):short 39.75’s

Dboy:(11:37:37 AM):tight stop

Dboy:(12:28:29 PM):covered half at 36.75

Dboy:(12:41:55 PM):stop at entry now on other half

Dboy:(1:18:34 PM):stopped at entry 39.75

 

Floor Pivots For Tomorrow’s RTH E-mini

 

R3  2063.50

R2  2051.75

R1  2047.00

PP  2040.00

S1  2035.25

S2  2028.25

S3  2016.50

 

Tomorrow’s Notable Earnings:

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc (KKD), Nike Inc (NKE)

 

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar:

 

Redbook

8:55 AM ET

 

FHFA House Price Index

9:00 AM ET

 

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

9:45 AM ET

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10:00 AM ET

 

4-Week Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

 

Charles Evans Speaks

12:30 PM ET

 

Patrick Harker Speaks

6:30 PM ET

 

<ul>

<li>Open: 2035.75  </li>

<li>High   2044.50 </li>

<li>Low:   2032.75  </li>

<li>Close: 2042.50 </li>

<li>Volume: 1.27 million total  </li>

<li>MOC:   $370 Million to Buy  </li>

</ul>

 

(Visited 1 times, 1 visits today)

Leave a Reply