Critical information for the U.S. trading day

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There’s no near-term respite in sight for stocks as a new week begins, with futures tumbling ahead of what many see will be a firm foot by the Fed “on the brake pedal this week.”

Technical analysts are warning that markets are poised to retest June lows, with 3,640 on the S&P 500 (SPX) in the spotlight.

“Investors have become much less comfortable with this tighter liquidity environment, with many realizing it will stay in place for a much longer period of time than initially expected, which ultimately leads to the current decreasing appetite for riskier assets,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades.

https://twitter.com/simon_ree/status/1571690456286920704

One result has been a steady push by investors into the dollar, which Citigroup strategists have described as “one of the only places to hide.” While the greenback is looking overvalued and a turning point is inevitable, Citi says either “global growth expectations need to turn or the Fed needs to pivot,” for that to happen.

Our call of the day comes from Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI’s chief equity and quantitative strategist, who thinks the Fed will drag the dollar lower sooner than many think.

Emanuel tells clients in a note that last week’s FedEx (FDX) profit gloom and the inverted yield curve between the two- and 10-year Treasurys are red flags for a global recession reaching U.S. shores.

With that, Emanuel expects “the Fed could (and should) guide markets on Wednesday that ‘data dependency’ for the central bank’s Nov. 1-2 FOMC decision is 0-75bp in hikes, not 50-75.” Given the Fed will be assessing enormous tightening already in place and potential for messy midterm elections, the strategist thinks U.S. dollar will “continue to temper its strength.”

The dollar index is up about 1.3% so far for September, after a blistering 2.6% gain in August.

Evercore ISI

The Evercore team offers up a list of “Dollar-Down Denominators” — S&P 500 (SPX) names that could outperform in case of a dollar pull back, alongside “Buck Backsliders” equities that could underperform amid a weakening dollar.

From the “Denominators” list are export-oriented sectors with more than 70% foreign revenue exposure and high short interest, that have underperformed their peers in 2022. NVIDIA (NVDA), Linde (LIN), Mondelez International (MDLZ) and Estee
Lauder (EL) are just a few of those names.

Evercore ISI

On the “Backsliders” list are Verizon Communications (VZ), AT&T (T), Union Pacific (UNP) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) , to name a few.

Evercore ISI

So far for Monday it’s dollar up.

Hear from Ray Dalio at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22 in New York. The hedge-fund pioneer has strong views on where the economy is headed.

The markets

It’s not just stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00). Oil (CL.1)
is dropping, while bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) prices are getting hit particularly hard, following the latter’s so-called “merge” last week. Bond yields (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y) (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) are steady, while gold prices (GC00) are down.

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The chart

Zoom Video Communications (ZM), has not just been a “poster child” for stocks hitting new lows on the Nasdaq, “but one of the greatest leading indicators of where the market is going overall,” says Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management.

The video-conferencing group that surged during the pandemic, made a new low on Friday, and “probably isn’t finished falling either, with the following significant support at $76.45 and then $70. “

Here’s his chart, and full blog post.

Mott Capital

The tickers

These are the top-searched tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:

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