We spoke with old friend Herman Kohlmeyer of New Orleans today, regards a new book out by and about Peter Wolf. Wolf writes about being Jewish in New Orleans and trying to fit into the multi-layers of society between the Old French, the “Americans,” the Italians, the “new” Acadians, and so on. He was a cotton merchant for a short time, and Kohlmeyer says he knows Wolf very well. If you have interest in New Orleans’ long history with cotton, you may find some intriguing parts. Title My New Orleans, Gone Away, by Peter Wolf. The review was written by Winston Groom, who wrote Forrest Gump and Shrouds of Glory.
Condition figures were rather surprising for Texas, considering the ample rains the entire state got just last week. We are beginning to be very suspicious of these Texas numbers, as what reps at the USDA tells us is that conditions are calculated on cotton that will be harvested, not that which has already been abandoned. Rains in June and July appear to be sufficient to allow for average yields in many districts, and above average in others. Only districts in the extreme south should be well below average.
While talking to Mr. Kohlmeyer about the new book, we asked him what he thought of the crop now. Mr. K had a ballpark 14.0 Mb US estimate, and said he had heard numbers as low as 12.2 Mb. Our estimate is 14.2 Mb, and if we are big wrong anywhere it will be in Texas. The stunning thing about the condition report this week was that Texas showed no improvement after the rains. Nuts. We remain negative, and will keep looking for those magic hedge spots for growers. Technicals
Dec more or less failed at the negative trend line and has flopped back down to the cluster of moving averages. Support via the lower trend line is 8400. The wedge is thus getting tighter and tighter, with a range now of just a little over 200 points. A close outside 8400/8600 will be meaningful. Seasonal is negative.
