Today is series s2H NORMAL and the SPILL PRESSURE is DOWN. We came into the week last week looking for the market to make an ‘a’ wave LOW and begin a ‘b’ wave rally. There were 3 CRITICAL SPOT LEVELS given: 1613-1617 if things got ugly, 1632.5 tied to the 1635 CASH .5 retrace, and 1642.5 .WE ALSO began the week with the BULLS needing to get back thru 1660.1-1661.25. As the week progressed it became obvious that 1651.5 was functioning as the Price of the WEEK ;furthermore ,price did play out similar to the BEHAVIOR seen when we use COMMITTED CONFIRMED BACK TROUGHS (see the recent behavior involving 1693 and 1681.5 SPOTS , the committed confirmed for this drop from 1705 that FAILED TO ACCELERATE THROUGH 1711 cash).
We made a PEEAN trap of the 1632.5 PRE-ID SPOT just as the MEREDITH window opened on 8/22 then by the time the RTH opened we had done the back through of the 1642.5 SPOT with a test at 1643.5 LOW OF DAY on the 22nd RTH. Lastly the 1637 SPOT contained the low of the move in the RTH (actual 1636.3).—This means , those in the CASH world were left at the alter who followed with too many eyes on the 1635 CASH and the Peeans who shorted LOOKING FOR the BREAK OF THE 1635 cash were TRAPPED–SHADES OF THE (4) low at 1560.33 CASH-TOO MANY EYES !
Now the main things going on right now are: this market is in summer doldrums waiting on Labor day to pass, so the action in the a.m. is being followed by pricing that does not even behave in ROPE FASHION, more like TWINE with 2 handle multi hour brackets. The lack of players will be remedied beginning next week.
The next big deal is the market is pointing to 2 events now on the nearby horizon: SEPT NFP ON 9/6 and the FED RATE DECISION 9/17-18.These two catalysts will be the MAIN DEALS barring any unforeseen events.
This week will have a fairly busy calendar and ALL OF THE ABOVE is easily woven into the last 3 weeks of commentaries as follows:
OUR LEAN is that (5) SEALED at 1705 SPOO , 1709.67 cash , 1.33 handles from the FAILURE to ACCELERATE through the 1711 CASH.The BEARS OWN THIS CHART up to the 1689 SPOT.We were BINGO on the ‘a’ low -SEE CHART WITH BLOOD RED (A) and are currently in (B) up BLOOD RED and then we will dump again.The alternate is we have not quite completed the (A) and this rally is the little red 4 with the arrow pointing down just under it.The BULL alternate is the same as it has been , the Blue c=2=(5) and the market will rally through the 1689 SPOT on its way to new highs.LASTLY , by not overlapping the 1626.61 CASH HIGH some bulls will want to call this a 4th wave of (5) and of course it is mechanically valid;however, it is waaaaaaaaaay too asymmetrical for my tastes for multiple reasons. SPOTS TA ROUNJDIES-inverted T’S , look for at least 1 good down.
By William Blount
FV -2.26 NUMBAHS S2H NORMAL 08/26/ 2013 SEP. contract
PIVOT 1658.7 1653.3
S1 1655.2 1644.4
S2 1648.7 1627.3
R1 1665.0 1670.4
R2 1668.5 1679.3
MAX H 1674.8 1696.4
MAX L 1645.3 1618.4
1657.0-1666.8 Primary 1648.9-1674.9
1652.1-1661.9 Alternate 1635.9-1661.9
1659.5 HIGH 1648.1
1660.6 LOW 1646.6
OPG 1660.0 1651.4
H 1662.3 1662.3
L 1652.5 1636.3
C 1661.4 1661.4