Being completely away from the market for a week was resting, but not much has been settled during that time. Rain came to the Llano Estacado, somewhat a surprise, nourishing a pretty good situation there. All good in the rest of Dixie, China, India, et al. Demand has continued to run good to hot, with some noted cooling. Grain markets have exploded, mostly due to heavy short COT levels, not so much for weather.
The COT position for cotton has been sliced and diced down to almost nothing. In other words, the slate is clean and specs can begin to begin accumulating the next Big Position. With all trends down, it would be expected for the specs and funds to keep selling, and by fall end up with another one of those too big positions.
Next weekend marks the halfway point for the northern hemisphere crop, and so far so good except for some minor areas. The crop in the RGV is going to be a poor one, and this cotton could have greatly alleviated tightness during the transition. This market continues to be one of very tight nearby supplies, and a potential bounty later. Sell rallies.
A negative seasonal began last Friday, but its a shorty. Ends next Monday. The current chop looks corrective, and it would not be surprising to see Dec make a new low under 6615, then recover. We would sell 6900ish, but that has been a fleeting chance.
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