Market Review

S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date June 4, 2021

Chart by AMS Trading Group

Economic Calendar



Closing Prices


In the TradeChat Room

Market On Close – Large EOW buy imbalance


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SpyGate: Slow bot day, but overall bullish


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Chart of the Day

Russell 2000 Is Bound to Lose AMC Entertainment, GameStop

Chart by Dave Wilson

This month’s overhaul of the Russell 2000 Index may prove costly for the gauge of smaller U.S. companies. The two biggest contributors to the measure’s 15% surge for the year through Thursday were AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop Corp. — standouts among so-called meme stocks. Both are poised for transfers out of the gauge and into the Russell 1000 Index of larger companies on June 28, when FTSE Russell completes an annual reconstitution of U.S. indexes. The shift would reflect the companies’ market value: $26.4 billion for AMC and $19.2 billion for GameStop as of Thursday.


Our View

Jobs Friday Stock Market Bonus; Bonds Rally, Vix Falls, S&P and Dow Fall Short Of All-Time New Highs  

The S&P Futures (ESM21:CME) traded down to 4177 on Globex Thursday night and opened at 4210.50 on Friday morning’s 9:30 ET Futures open. After the open, the ES down ticked to 4209.25 and basically went straight up to 4229.25 at 2:54 PM, up 38 points or +0.88%. Before 3:00, the MiM was showing over $1 billion to buy. Total volume was astonishingly low at 550,000 contracts traded on the day session. It was a non-stop buy program from 6:36 am when the ES was trading 8184.00. At 3:25, the ES and NQ remained just a few points off their daily highs but the NQ got hit by some small selling. On the 3:50 cash imbalance, the ES traded 4337.50 as the MIM came out showing $1.75 billion on the buy side but the big buy failed to inspire and the ES traded 4222.50 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 4226 on the 4:15 futures close, up 55.5 points on the day.  

In terms of the S&P’s overall tone, it was a bereft storm to the upside, it was like everything was working in favor of the upside, bonds rallied and the VIX fell to 16.18 and settled at 16.42, down 9%. In terms of the day’s overall trade, the total ES day volume was only 1 million contracts. This worked in favor of the upside early in the day and against it late in the day. 

It was a long week of low volume and choppy trade that finished on a very positive note. I know my 4240 has not materialized as quickly as I would have liked but it’s all about buying power and over the last several sessions the ES has been left out of the rotation but Friday was different. 

Our view:  The highlights of the week ahead include President Biden taking his first overseas trip pushing his $1.7 trillion infrastructure proposal and Thursday’s CPI and jobless claims. I think things could be slow again this week. That said, the week after next has several key economic reports right in the middle of the Fed’s next two-day meeting on June 15th and 16th. As I have said many times, no one knows for sure what the S&P is going to do but recently it has been weak in the first part of the week and up late in the week. I used to say there were three parts to the day; what happens on Globex, what happens after the 9:30 ET open, and what the guys with the better seats do, but now it is what the Nasdaq is going to do late. Our lean, you can sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks or just buy the pullbacks for the first part of the day then watch for the after 3:00 Nasdaq weakness that usually shows up.

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.

Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME  trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS







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