Market Review
‘Tis the season, as they say. No one trading and no volume. Everyone and their brother seems to be looking for a correction, but without proof of rotation, it’s hard to short a dull market.
After trading down to the 4412.25 level on Globex Sunday night, the ES traded 4428.50 at the open, traded up to 4432, and then sold off down to 4416.75 at 9:37. A quick bounce sent the ES back up to 4426 — a lower high — dropped back down to 4417.75 just before 10:00, and then chopped around between 4418.50 and 4427.50 for the next 4.5 hours.
Snooze…
After running some buy stops on the upside, the ES traded back down to the 4425 level as the MiM flipped from $44 million to sell to $355 million to buy on the 3:50 cash imbalance and traded 4426.00 on the 4:00 cash close. The ES ended the day down less than 4 points.
In the end, the old saying about ‘Never Sell A Quiet Market’ rang loud and clear. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was painfully low at 757K.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close : $343M to Buy. Size both sides but 50/50 split = rotation.
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
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SpyGate: Morning Sells turn into mid-day buys.
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SpyGate is now available free to members of IMPRO and MIM trading room. Join the MiM.
Baxter:
Baxter is back!
Monday trade on the ESU21 found a 14.65 range. The outside range for Baxter was 43.84 and neither bound was crossed. Bax is still fighting these tight range days like the rest of us waiting for some breakout trading.
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 ascends to new highs at near-record annual pace
This year has the potential to be like no other for the S&P 500 Index. The U.S. equity benchmark closed Friday at its 44th new high of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the current pace, the S&P 500 would set records 74 times in 2021. That’s within striking distance of the highest-ever annual total: 77, from 1995. Figures for earlier years were provided by Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC’s chief market strategist, in a Twitter post Friday.
Our View
It’s been very slow the last few weeks and unless we get some type of negative headline, I think the grind is going to continue. When volumes are low like this, it gets even harder to fight the trend and to fight the Fed.
Our lean: I am not going to say you can’t get short or sell it. What I will say is what I said in the recap: Never Sell A Quiet Market. With ES volume under 800,000, the last two days back up my quote. You can sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks…or just stay with the trend and buy the pullbacks.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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