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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 03 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise | Alphabet, Atlassian tumble on earnings | Aura gets 30-year guarantee for Mauritania uranium project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 January: ASX swings to loss | Retail sales plummet; Megaport sheds 25pc | Avecho Biotechnology progresses CBD softgel trials for insomnia treatment |

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    Is half carry enough?

    Jason Sen: FX

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    $ up, cotton down, easy money.

    Jason Sen: Forex

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    Dollar dipsey doodle at 10150.

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    Danny’s View:  All About What The Fed Says (Not What It Does)

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    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

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    The Washington Post – US stocks open higher, putting market on track for 3rd gain

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 03 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise | Alphabet, Atlassian tumble on earnings | Aura gets 30-year guarantee for Mauritania uranium project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 January: ASX swings to loss | Retail sales plummet; Megaport sheds 25pc | Avecho Biotechnology progresses CBD softgel trials for insomnia treatment |

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
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    • feedid-60
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    • feedid-66
  • Charts

    Is half carry enough?

    Jason Sen: FX

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    $ up, cotton down, easy money.

    Jason Sen: Forex

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    Dollar dipsey doodle at 10150.

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    Danny’s View:  It’s The Bulls’ Ball To Drop With Powell On Tap

    Danny’s View: It’s The Bulls’ Ball To Drop With Powell On Tap

    Danny’s View:  Do We Have A Major Turn Coming?

    Danny’s View: Do We Have A Major Turn Coming?

    Danny’s View:  Blowout Jobs Report Has S&P On Its Heels

    Danny’s View: Blowout Jobs Report Has S&P On Its Heels

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    Danny’s View:  Markets Shrug Off Fed Worries

    Danny’s View: Markets Shrug Off Fed Worries

    Danny’s View:  All About What The Fed Says (Not What It Does)

    Danny’s View: All About What The Fed Says (Not What It Does)

    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    The Washington Post – US stocks open higher, putting market on track for 3rd gain

    Danny’s View: Starting The Week With A Needed Pullback

    Danny’s View:  Bulls Are In Control For Now

    Danny’s View: Bulls Are In Control For Now

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

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    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: GameStop Stock Raises Capital

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Another Go at Amazon Stock

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Pain is huge, but remember early 2001?

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October 3, 2022
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The Market Ear
Credit protection panic in a pic

It is hard to find superlatives for the move in credit protection. Europe is (of course) the biggest sucker, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. Chart showing iTraxx main and CDX IG.



Refinitiv

Credit vs equity protection – Jaws gap

The spread between equity and credit protection has continued to widen. Charts showing VIX vs CDX IG , and iTraxx main vs V2X. European equity stress remains the biggest laggard, absolutely, but above all relatively speaking.



Refinitiv



Refinitiv

Did credit markets “break” this week?

This week, global credit markets broke records, though not in the way we’d like. US IG new issuances continued to disappoint, as only two companies came to market for a combined value of $1.7B – September volume finished at $78.6B, 47% below estimates. Meanwhile, September volume for HY bonds closed at a modest $9B, the lowest since 2011. Following the passage of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s fiscal package and the subsequent market havoc, rates for new sterling bond issuances are 325 bps higher than existing bonds, exceeding the highs in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. (Morgan Stanley)

What got us here

Goldman’s Scott Rubner with some relevant points:

1. Systematic Macro De-leveraging from vol control, risk-parity and new shorting of trend breakdown from CTA’s

2. Pension Fund quarter-end Equity “de-risk” estimates Supply underestimated by the street.

3. Short Index Gamma is the largest (most short) since GS have been tracking.

4. US Corporates are in peak blackout window (93% of SPX is in blackout window).

5. The movement to Passive investing will exacerbate outflows.

6. Foreign investors saw the largest selling stocks on record.

7. Outright Directional macro delta shorts are consensus.

8. Asset Managers are building a cash pile and raising cash.

9. Mutual Fund year-end September (~$937 Billion) has accelerated some selling (T+2).

The question is where do we go from here. Fear the CS weekend stories or look beyond what has happened already. “Delta” such as the corp buyback will reverse soon…



Barclays

Did you trade back in early 2001?

Remember Jan 3 2001? Things were bearish coming into this day and suddenly the screens were too small to the upside. The surprise rate cut saw NASDAQ futures surge almost 23% from lows to highs during this session. Big shorts..and big longs remember…



Refinitiv

Goldman on USTs: time to nibble, not to feast

“Although the sharp repricing in sovereign debt has resulted in 10y UST yields close to our year-end target, and only about 25bp below the peak levels we project for this cycle, we remain cautious about adding longs. There are a few reasons for our reluctance to go long.

1. First, both as a result of upside risks to growth and the Fed’s reaction function, we believe there are still upside risks to our economists’ 4.5-4.75% terminal rate projection.

2. Second, even in the event of a more immediate recession where the Fed might be expected to cut, assuming historically maximal inversion from the past five decades (excluding the Volcker period in the early 1980s) suggests only about 30-40bp of downside to 10y yields.

3. Finally, we note that opportunity cost of staying in cash versus buying bonds isn’t that high—the short term interest rate is soon likely to exceed the interest on longer maturity USTs”

(Goldman)

Where rate volatility goes, spreads follow

There has been a strong correlation between the volatility in UST markets and HG credit spreads, and the elevated volatility this week is contributing to spread weakness.



JPM

One chart to rule them all

G4 Central Banks’ balance sheet -$3.1tn in past 7 months. This has created asset value destruction of 10x-20x magnitude (depending on what you include). Biggest question from now: are we past the “max pain” point or will this just continue and eventually cause something to break for real…?



Flow Show

Peak dollar

“While it feels like Wall Street has finally gotten deafeningly loud on the dollar, it could also be too little too late. We looked back as far as the DXY index went and found that typically, the appreciation levels we are seeing is right around where they tend to roll, at a +2SD event”



Jefferies

VIX – did you see me on Friday?

Who do you trust?



Refinitiv

© 2022 The Market Ear

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