The press conference from Vice –President Biden indicates that the US is ready to intervene in Syria.
Syria is far more complex than Libya, because at this point there are so many faction fighting against each other .So if there is intervention there better be an plan that follows on how to administer the country. Past history does not give us much hope on this level. It will affect Lebanon which could become a battleground again. In Egypt it will probably give the army an excuse to crack down further on the Islamist movements.
In the meantime the markets are concentrating on the good IFO numbers coming out of Germany, continuing the positive view that investors have come to see in Europe.
We nevertheless feel that the situation in Portugal will soon put some clouds over this apparent gentle summer breeze. The public debt has gone up from 123.8%, in December 2012 to 127.1% this March and has now gone up to 131.4%.
The seventh troika assessment said that Portuguese public debt should not be any higher than 122.9% of GDP at the end of 2013.
So there could be soon some demand for help : Bank investors beware.
We got stopped out on half our short EURUSD position at 1.3380 and have kept the other half.
Weekly Pivot EURUSD September future
PP 1.3377, R1 1.3440, R2 1.3503, R3 1.3630
S1 1.3313, S2 1.3250, S3 1.3125
