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Home Currencies Forex

Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?

DailyFx by DailyFx
Thursday, July 25, 2013
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Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

EUR/USD:

PT_gold_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

 

  • EUR/USD overcame the 4th square root progression of the year-to-date low at 1.3205 earlier this week but has since stalled out near the 4th square root progression of the year’s high near 1.3240
  • While the exchange rate is above 1.3025 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • A close over 1.3240 now looks required to prolong the advance and setup a move to test critical resistance near 1.3300
  • Thursday and Friday are a minor cycle turn windows, but a bigger picture cyclical inflection point next week looks to be the real attraction and the ideal time for the broader downtrend to reassert
  • The 2×1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date low at 1.3150 is immediate support, but only aggressive weakness back under 1.3025 will turn us negative on the Euro

 

Strategy: Like holding long positions while above 1.3025.

 

Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR/USD *1.3025 1.3150 1.3190 *1.3240 1.3275

 

GBP/USD:

PT_gold_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

 

  • GBP/USD failed again on Thursday near the 61.8% retracement of the June to July decline in the 1.5390 area
  • While over 1.5140 our near-term trend bias has to remain higher in Cable
  • The 1.5390 level remains a critical upside pivot with traction above this level needed to trigger a renewed push higher in the rate
  • Near-term focused cycle studies favore weakenss over the next couple of days, but next week looks like a more important cyclical turn window
  • The 4th square root progression from the June high at 1.5250 is immediate support, but only weakness below 1.5140 turn us negative on Sterling

 

Strategy: Like holding long positions while over 1.5140, but these should be reduced after the repeated failures at 1.5390.

 

 

Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
GBP/USD *1.5140 1.5250 1.5295 *1.5390 1.5440

 

USD/CAD:

PT_gold_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

 

  • USD/CAD traded to its lowest level in over a month on Wednesday before finding support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline in the 1.0265
  • While under the 2nd square root progression of the year’s high in the 1.0400 area our near-term trend bias will remain lower in Funds
  • The 1.0265 level is a minor pivot, but weakness under a Fibonacci cluster at 1.0240 is really needed to trigger the next significant decline
  • The middle of next week looks like a clear cycle turn window in the rate
  • The 50% retracement of the June to July advance at 1.0370 is immediate resistance, but only traction over 1.0400 turns us positive on USD/CAD

 

Strategy: Like holding short positions for a few more days while under 1.0400.

 

 

Instrument Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
USD/CAD *1.0240 1.0265 1.0295 1.0370 *1.0400

 

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

 

PT_gold_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Resuming the Downtrend?

 

XAU/USD reversed during the medium-term cycle turn window we pinpointed for this week albeit from higher levels than we had initially anticipated. We had been eyeing the 50% retracement of the June range at 1301 as a natural stopping point, but a breach of this level at the start of the week forced a move to the next point of symmetry near the 161.8% projection of the late June/early July correction near 1348. Wednesday’s clear failure from this level at the tail end of the turn window sets the stage for a more important move lower over the next few days/ weeks. The 1310 level is initial support, but a break of 1274 is really needed to set off a more important decline to re-test 1215. With the turn window now over, strength back over 1248 would be very surprising. Such a scenario would be very positive for the metal and likely set up a much more important move higher.

 

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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