Spending way too much time on this, our estimate for US production is 21.45 Mb. Texas comes in at 9.3 Mb. This was a push-and-pull effort, as we ended up cutting about 650 kb from the Delta and SE, and adding 300 kb in TX, OK, NM and KS. Then we took the easy way out for exports, and simply took a 60% ratio of total supply to get 14.525 Mb. End stocks are 6.07 Mb, about where they were last month. For the world numbers, production was inched up Mb overall.
Nate. Not much. Friends in New Orleans actually cooked outside Saturday night, and got 0 from Nate. Friends in Biloxi reported a few blocks without power due to limbs, but otherwise it was about the same as a thunderstorm. Even if Nate had come over the Delta, or sw GA, losses would have been small.
It will be cool in Lubbock tomorrow night, and nw of Amarillo there are chances of frost. This is mainly corn country, but there is a little cotton grown nw of Amarillo. Forecast for the Llano Estacado after this slight cooldown is back to normal, warm and dry. If this area can get into Nov without a frost or freeze, then TX can have a shot at record yield. Maybe. We dont expect the market to do much until the report, as there are wide opinions as to how much cotton has been lost to three hurricanes. We remain negative.
Todays chart represents data points of a fundamental type. The pinch points for carryout ratios from 30% to 38% range from 40c at the lowest, to 60c at the highest.
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