Activity in China’s service sector expanded again in April, though the gains were slightly less robust than in March, as firms resumed adding staff following a rare decline the previous month. The Caixin services PMI dropped to 51.8 from 52.2, as new business climbed at the fastest pace since the beginning of the year, but expectations remained unchanged. The survey focuses on small- and medium-sized enterprises, while the official data tracks larger firms.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.5% to 20429. China +0.2% to 2997. India +0.6% to 25262.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +3.1% to $45.12. Gold +0.2% to $1277.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.78%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
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Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup Good Jobs Rate
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:50 Fed’s Bullard speech
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet
We knew odds (83%) favored a rally on Cycle Day 3 to recapture 2055.50 (CD1 Low)…It just did not happen during RTH Session, but occurred in overnight trade. as price has traded up to 2060 (3D CPZ).
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…We normally would be anticipating some sort of decline today, though with recent cycles slightly disrupted in timing, we’ll remain flexible to any directional bias. Overall trend remains bearish as priced continues to stay below a descending 3 Day Central Pivot (2059.75) which is marked as key resistance. Bulls will need to convert this level to support for increased chance of higher prices.
Range Projections and Key Levels: June (M) Contract
Algorithmic Creed: “Shake’em…Bake’em…Strip’em and Rip’em”…This is simply the new trading world order we live in folks…So get used to it…Gotta “Think Like an Algo”.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendation rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
3 Day Cycle Chart
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels. We will identify specific trade levels in Trading Room.
Scenario 1: Price has rallied in overnight trade to recapture prior CD1 Low (2055.50) producing a “delayed” Positive 3 Day Cycle . Price will need to hold above 2046 – 2048 zone for continued Sign of Strength (SOS). Initial resistance is marked between 2060 – 2062 zone.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of the 2046 – 48 zone would potentially negate the current rally (bounce) from deep lows and be a renewed Sign of Weakness (SOW) targeting a retest of 2040 handle prior low. Average Cycle Decline on CD1 measures 2036.91 with CD1 Max Violation Level 2030.56.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” -Bruce Lee.
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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