Very quiet start to the week and we expect more of the same today all be it with some impact to the Aussie overnight as we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes up.
Essentially Monday was primarily focused with choppy conditions and we expect these to further continue until Wednesday. Retail Traders on the whole continued to Buy the US Dollar. Very little movement today though does mean our Week Ahead outlook pretty much remains in tact.
RTAS Order Book systems continue to hold longs in the EURUSD but we suspect this could easily be short lived with the Retail Order book at such extremes. We saw Retail Orders flatten slightly but at extreme levels, any further push higher is likely to be extremely choppy as the Order Book will need to be cleared to support the move.
Key pivot points in the EURUSD at the moment. 1.3325 and 1.3250 acting as directional levels with the 1.3415 acting as a upper resistance point. Whilst we remain below the 1.3415 mark we still suspect we will push lower but we could see further chop above 1.3250 until the market has finally made up its mind. Today saw a minor Pin Bar lower off of the resistance level which with stops above the 1.3400 level could offer a good short entry option, if we see some confirmation in the Order Book.
RTAS Order Book systems finally switched to back to longs on this pair with the aggressive spike clearing out a series of orders and putting Retail Traders aggressive selling the pair again. Pair now needs to break the key 1.5650 pivot and hold above to stand a chance of pushing higher.
Having broken the 200 day SMA the GBPUSD is now looking relatively well supported with the 1.5600 level and then the 200 day SMA below at 1.5520 both providing support. If the pair does push higher we could now easily see it test the 1.5750 highs from June.
System switched to shorts today as the pair tested the upper resistance again. Potentially the latest moves form as positioning ahead of the Monetary Policy Minutes but with increased Retail Buying in the pair today we saw it push back towards the key support level yet again.
Pair has be carving out a bottom recently and now needs to push itself above the 0.92222 mark in order to maintain momentum to the upside. We suspect this pair will remain choppy though in the medium term. Minutes tonight could be key to short term momentum.
Order Book systems switched to short on the Retail Buying at the end of last week. Pair is now rather choppy as it carves out a bottom at current levels and struggles with support.
We now sit back in our key support zone we highlighted before and the pair is essentially range trading between the 200 day SMA and this support area. If it manages to break one of these areas we are likely to see a push in that direction but until then we see this pair continuing its chop. We have therefore switched Order Book systems to a short term basis.
The RTAS Order Book system now holding long this pair as it tested the key 1.4500 level for the third time and failed to break. Further Retail Sellers therefore helped the system switch its positioning. An increase in Retail Sellers initially today followed by some closers at the cross over means the Order Book Systems are close to switching to shorts again as we approach key resistance again. Key risk event over night to watch for.
Pair has been relatively supported at the 1.4500 mark. If the pair is to push lower and put in a much larger retracement we need to see a clean test and break of this level otherwise there is a higher probability for a retest of recent highs.