Poor US Home Sales Data and some initial weakness in US Dollar is playing out initially how we had expected / hoped for with Retail Traders selling causing an initial spike higher, if we now manage to clear some of these orders we will have room in the order book to drop lower.
RTAS Order Book systems remain long this pair at the 1.3000 level as we saw further Retail Trader selling this pair today despite the weaker US Housing data.
Order Book is starting to settle though and is starting to head towards shorts.
So far Daily chart this week is playing out almost as expected, so it will be interesting to see if we continue this run. Order Books are starting to flatten on a Daily basis and we have now cleared some room for a push in either direction, higher or lower. We still like the idea this pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern and would expect any pushes higher to be capped around the 1.3250 mark.
RTAS Order Book systems remain long this pair and today’s push higher has helped them along. We saw a good amount of selling in the pair from Retail Traders however we are now coming up to the key 1.5400 mark. If we continue to see selling in the pair we could see a real test of this level.
Daily chart looks relative supportive with the Pin Bar from the 15th of July playing out really well. We now sit within our resistance zone and we watch carefully for signs of rejection and the reaction of the Order Book to the key 1.5400 level. Further Retail Selling could push us higher towards the 200 day SMA, however, support here and further buying on a move lower could offer a full reversal.
Aussie jumped long today and is now looking for the potential to short again as our RTAS Order Book systems play the shorter term moves whilst this pair carves out a new low. The initial Retail Selling allowed the system to capture the midday pop higher.
So far Aussie seems to be playing to our initial out look having found support at the 0.9150 mark. We expect to see further chop in this pair given the aggressive positioning of the Retail Order Book but continue to like this pair for a choppy move higher/sideways.
Order Book systems jumped long today which aligned to our overall view on the pair as well. Although currently out of the money with longs around 0.9400 the pair rejected the key 0.9330 level.
On a Daily basis our outlook hasn’t changed and we continue to like this pair for a move higher. It will be key that this pair finds support around the 200 Day SMA and the 0.9330 level otherwise we could see a drop down to recent lows. Key will be ensuring a close above the 0.9330 line.
With the RTAS Order Book system remains short from around the 1.4400 mark. Although we have seen some Retail Buyers in this pair the Order Book hasn’t really had the follow through we would like and is starting to flatten out.
If we do manage to find further Retail Buyers then we could see a move lower but the current sideways moves could result in another push higher before a correction. Some real patience required on this one.
We maintain our outlook on the daily chart, with the view this pair is setting an interim top. A nice RSI divergence on the Daily Charts and the extremes in the Order Books gave initial clues, we now need to see some follow through in the Order Book with further Retail buying in this pair to ensure this isn’t just an initial pull back.