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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.4pc | Consumer firms drag China shares lower; Alibaba, Tencent boost Hong Kong | Azure Minerals starts accelerated exploration and resource drilling program at Andover |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up | Here’s what ASX stockspert Bhavdip143 likes so much about the $35m Chimeric IPO |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX snaps loosing streak | China stocks mixed on profit-taking; consumer, healthcare down | BPH Energy’s investee Advent closer to drilling Baleen gas target, carbon capture and storage research |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX to slide, Wall St mixed | Felix becomes 2021’s first ASX tech IPO; shares edge upwards |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX falls 0.3pc | iCandy Interactive offers sneak peek into first of four new mobile games | China stocks rebound, Hong Kong hovers near 1-year high |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up, Wall St retreats | Airbnb breaks into top 10 US stocks for Australian investors |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 11 JANUARY: | ASX dips | Digital Wine Ventures dominates McLaren Vale wine region as orders surge over holiday season | China stocks slip on Sino-U.S. tensions |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 11-15 Jan

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Home Commentary MrTopStep

‘Septaper’ and the jobless recovery

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
Monday, September 9, 2013
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‘Septaper’ and the jobless recovery
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While the Fed taper drums continued to beat, last week’s disappointing jobs report complicated the argument that quantitative easing was no longer needed. Meanwhile, world leaders have raised alarms that a hasty exit from the Fed’s bond buying program could disrupt the global recovery. Now some key dates are upon us and may prove or confound predictions. Mark these on your calendar:

  • Sept. 9: House and Senate return 9 legislative days before the end of the fiscal year and before the current spending authority expires.
  • Fed policy meeting on Sept. 17-18 will likely decide on a start to tapering of bond purchases.
  • The Fed expects to halt the bond buying program by mid-2014, when it forecasts that the U.S. unemployment rate will be around 7%.

The clock is ticking

Labor force chartAccording to a recent Reuters poll, bets firmed up last month that most economists and primary dealers agree that the Fed could start to “ease” QE3+ after the Sept. 17-18 two-day meeting. Additionally, one of the Fed’s most hawkish officials, Kansas City President Esther George, will be urging the central bank to reduce its bond buying program to $70 billion a month.

At the same time, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, like George a voter on the policy-making committee, is still saying a move to taper is not a done deal. He said he would continue to weigh “evidence about the durability of the economic recovery,” although he said he could be “swayed toward a pullback.” Speaking in in Greenville, S.C., he went on to say, “This is a period where it’s even more important to go into an FOMC meeting with an open mind. There’s been cumulative progress on the economy. I can be persuaded that there has been enough improvement.”

Evans said he was disappointed to see labor force participation fall again and added that the jobless rate could be going down because of discouragement rather than hiring. He went on to say that the economy is still around 5 million jobs short of where it should be at this point. Last Friday’s data showed the unemployment rate in August down to 7.3% and at a 4- 1/2 year low.

On Friday Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said, “There is an expectation that we will act in September. Will we? It depends on the committee.” Fisher has been eager to pull back on the program because he doesn’t think it’s doing any good and because he is uncertain of the outcome.

While we often caution against trading the news, we always urge you to be aware of what news might cause market flutters and fluctuations. This month is one to keep the TV on and in particular, stay tuned to MrTopStep, where we will be debuting our new video channel in partnership with AOL On TV later this month.

There has been an increased level of taper talk recently, and while we have always paid attention to the subject, we think it’s time to pay closer attention to “Septaper” and what the Fed is saying as we move closer to this month’s two-day Fed meeting. Volatility has picked up and we expect it to stay that way.

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