As featured in the recently released, Seasonal Sector Trades: 2014 Q1, silver has a tendency to peak in February, most notably so in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers’ plot to corner the silver market was foiled. Our seasonal study shows that selling on or about February 20 and holding until about April 25 has worked 31 times in the last 41 years for a win probability of 75.6%. As you can see in the short silver table, the usual February silver break was trumped by the overarching precious metal bull market of 2002–2012 three times in the last ten years.
After suffering declines for two years in a row, this trade returned to success with its second best performance in 2013 as precious metals in general fell out of favor. Last year’s success and silver’s one-year seasonal pattern (yellow indicates mid-February to late June weakness) are indicated in the chart below: