The expected slow start to the week didn’t result in any really significant price action. Towards the US open we did see some initial buying in the US Dollar, but the main moves today were all pushed by Retail Traders.
We expect a similar situation tomorrow, but we do hear from RBA Govenor Stevens overnight, which could at least impact the AUDUSD; we also have German CPI which, in a light volume environment, could spark some action in the Euro crosses.
RTAS Order Book systems remain long this pair at the 1.3000 level. Minor buying today was quickly paired as the pair tested support levels.
The daily chart is now sat at key resistance with the 1.3300 mark currently containing the pair. If we break this level we could easily see a push to June highs at 1.3400, a hold below opens the door for a push lower, however we would expect to see some of the extreme bias in the Retail Order Book clear before a push lower.
RTAS Order Book systems hold long this pair but the Retail Order Book has remained relatively static lately with Retail Traders not really budging in either direction. This nicely opens the door up for moves in either direction, however at the moment we prefer shorts on Retail Buying.
Daily continues to look pretty Bearish with the pair struggling to close above the 1.5400 level. The longer we stay below that level the more likely we are to see a push lower.
AUDUSD remains choppy as the pair carves out a bottom. Although there is still risk to the downside, recent Retail Buying in the pair has cleared some of the extremes in the Retail Order Book allowing for more sustained moves in either direction. The system jumped short today after booking a nice profit on longs and currently remains in the money.
Watch out for RBA’s Stevens overnight.
We maintain our outlook on the AUDUSD that the pair is forming a bottom here, whilst we remain above the key 0.9100 level, however we do note, US Dollar strength could easily push this pair towards the 0.8500 level.
Order Book systems jumped long last week on Retail Traders selling in this pair, however the light volume caused the pair to drop through support. The RTAS Order Book system finally cut the position for a small loss today preferring shorts given the additional Retail Buying we have seen in the pair.
Daily chart highlights the key support at the 0.9250 level and the 0.9170 level. If we can hold these levels then we suspect we will push higher. Confirmation will come in the form of further Retail Selling.
Non Commercials still slightly long in this pair and saw some buying last week suggesting we are nearing a bottom in the pair however, Non Commercial are only just long and are far from their recent net long positions.
With the RTAS Order Book system switched to shorts at the 1.4410 mark today given the increased Retail Buying in the pair. The pair is going to find further Retail Sellers given the extreme levels and is looking to find further Buyers. We suspect a push lower could find Retail Traders buying the dip causing a further correctional move lower.
We maintain our outlook on the daily chart, with the view this pair is setting an interim top. A nice RSI divergence on the Daily Charts and the extremes in the Order Books gave initial clues, we now need to see some follow through in the Order Book with further Retail buying in this pair to ensure this isn’t just an initial pull back.
With the amount of time this pair has been chopping around at these levels we could actually see a head fake and false break of highs before a push lower to clear out some stops and make room in the Order Book.