The Asian markets closed mostly mostly higher and Europe is going for the ride.
I have to ask..whatever happened to Mutual Fund Monday? It used to be that you buy on Friday and hold till Monday but that’s not how it works anymore. Thus Turn-Around Tuesday has taken up the spot as one of the best trading days of the week for the S&P. As you we go into the end of July and the beginning of August the big question is, do they mark the markets up or down?
According to the MrTopStep settlement chart there have been a total of 29 Tuesdays in 2013. Of the 29, 22 Tuesdays have closed higher and 7 have closed lower. The Average gain is +9.27 handles and the average loss on this day is -5.7 handles. The First two Tuesdays of July were up and the last two have posted lower closes.
- Tuesday July 2 up +0.5 handles
Tuesday July 9 up +10.1 handles
Tuesday July 16 down -6.3 handles
Tuesday July 23 down -2 handles
With all the data / numbers about to clutter up the S&P this morning our view remains the same, the S&P will burst through 1700 in the next few days. While we should have added the sell the early rally part to the call yesterday the desk called the exact low of the day yesterday. Our view is that while most traders think it maybe hard to go higher into all the news we disagree. All the most recent ups and downs have done is add more buy stops above the markets. Our view is to sell the early rally and buy weakness. Turn around Tuesday is real and we suspect it to shine on the upside today as we go into the final two trading days in July. Buy stops start just above yesterday high at 1686 and increase in size above 1690 but get real big above 1699 to 1706. There will be some good trading opportunities over the next few days as the Fed meeting begins. They will happen because of, not in spite of, even lower volumes.
As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops when trading futures.
- It’s 7:30 a.m. and the ESU is trading 1686.25, up 3.75 handles; crude is down 1.05 at 103.50; and the euro is up 18 pips at 1.3286.
- In Asia, 7 of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp. up 0.70%, Hang Seng up 0.48%, Nikkei up 1.53%.
- In Europe, 6 of 12 markets are trading higher: DAX up 0.30%, FTSE up 0.28%.
- Today’s headline: Dollar off lows, shares up on promising earnings, data (Reuters)
- Total volume: 1.1mil ESU and 5.6k SPU traded
- Economic calendar: TUESDAY: S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, 2-day FOMC meeting begins. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Redbook, State Street Investor Confidence Index.
- Fair value: S&P 1680.08 (up 4.42); NASDAQ 3062.2 (up 11.80)
- MrTopStep Closing Print Video: http://mrtopstep.com/2013/07/mrtopstep-closing-print-07-29-2013/