As featured in the Commodity Trader’s Almanac 2013, [http://amzn.to/T2nCgU] in conjunction with our co-author John Person, [http://www.personsplanet.com/] under normal market conditions or trading environment, the “Swissie” also does tend to exhibit a seasonal pattern against the U.S. dollar. One tendency is for a relatively predictable move in August. Traders want to consider going long this seasonal best trade on or about August 8 and hold until on or about October 16.
In the 38-year history of this trade, it has worked 27 years, for a success rate of 71.1%. This trade’s worst loss, in 2011, was the result of central bank intervention and could have been avoided through the use of a stop loss and/or monitoring the Swiss National Bank. They have intervened in the forex market before, so when bank officials say they will intervene again, it is a good idea to heed their warnings.
