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Testing for the bull now. Watch $ES_F 1680 on the upside and 1666 for downside targets

Marlin Cobb by Marlin Cobb
Thursday, July 25, 2013
in Commentary, S&P 500
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Testing for the bull now. Watch $ES_F 1680 on the upside and 1666 for downside targets
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Today’s Economic News:

image

Mixed messages out of Europe today, mostly good though.  In the USA, look for the durable good and initial jobless claims to set the market mood. Can we ever break 300K on those initials? 

Quote of the Day:
It is better to aim at perfection and miss, than to aim at imperfection and hit it
–Thomas J. Watson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

A/D lines have turned considerably weaker with yesterday’s selling and today we look to open gap down and that will pin the lines even more.  We are now looking for a sub-50 reading with a test.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1684
Long:  1666

image

The bulls just could not get it done with a move above 1695 and the market broke.  Down now almost 1.5% from the highs, too many shorts jumped on board the selling and when it came to closing time, they were swept away in a nasty squeeze.  If we get continued performance today, watch that ATR line tomorrow begin to move above 3.

We are looking at the double bottom area from the 7/16 time frame at the 1666 level.  Looking for a new test there. 

We are seeing some breadth in volume selling.  It could just be position re-jockeying as we head through earning seasons into the year end close strategies.

We are suspicious of snap back rallies as money comes back in to new positions and weak shorts try to make their long awaited profits.

 

On the MiM

image

A strong sell signal developed, but the volume in the market never really built up any real selling and we ended up with way too many people short with no relief to the downside toward the close, they were squeezed out. 

image

That left the shorts bruised as those holding contracts that needed to settle before the cash close had to pay the escalating prices.   If you could have held through the close into the early GLOBEX, by 8:30pm the prices had returned to their pre-squeeze levels and then there was further selling into the night.   The MiM has been calling for a sell off the last 2 days and here we are now down 1% off the highs.

image

You can review the closing imbalance snapshots at http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim/

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We like the TLT long from here to 109.50 with a stop @ 106.50.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking for sub-50 if the bulls cannot recover from this gap down.  Watch that economic news today, durable goods, etc..  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

We finally saw some selling, something we hadn’t seen really since the end of June.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Even the 40 DPI took a step back. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

We still managed to put in 208 new highs.  That is not bad.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Remains bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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