Quotes by TradingView
Saturday, January 16, 2021
Premium: TradeChat
No Result
View All Result
MrTopStep.com LLC
  • News
    • All
    • Reuters Business
    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    Protected: OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Protected: OP: Seeking Balance

    NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Protected: OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Overdue

    OP: Overdue

    OP: Overdue

    Protected: OP: Overdue

  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
    • All
    • Apple
    • Dow Jones
    • Earnings
    • Facebook (FB)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS)
    • IPO
    • M&A
    • Markets
    • Mining
    • Nasdaq
    • NYSE
    • Russell 2000
    • S&P 500
    • Twitter (TWTR:NYSE)
    • VIX
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX down 0.6pc over the week | Lithium sector springs back to life amid acquisition deals and price rises | China stocks fall as consumer, liquor firms retreat |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.4pc | Consumer firms drag China shares lower; Alibaba, Tencent boost Hong Kong | Azure Minerals starts accelerated exploration and resource drilling program at Andover |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up | Here’s what ASX stockspert Bhavdip143 likes so much about the $35m Chimeric IPO |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX snaps loosing streak | China stocks mixed on profit-taking; consumer, healthcare down | BPH Energy’s investee Advent closer to drilling Baleen gas target, carbon capture and storage research |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX to slide, Wall St mixed | Felix becomes 2021’s first ASX tech IPO; shares edge upwards |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX falls 0.3pc | iCandy Interactive offers sneak peek into first of four new mobile games | China stocks rebound, Hong Kong hovers near 1-year high |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up, Wall St retreats | Airbnb breaks into top 10 US stocks for Australian investors |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 11 JANUARY: | ASX dips | Digital Wine Ventures dominates McLaren Vale wine region as orders surge over holiday season | China stocks slip on Sino-U.S. tensions |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 11-15 Jan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    GMTT – chart of the day – Coffee – Jan 15, 2021

    GMTT – chart of the day – Coffee – Jan 15, 2021

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX down 0.6pc over the week | Lithium sector springs back to life amid acquisition deals and price rises | China stocks fall as consumer, liquor firms retreat |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 11-15 Jan

    Jason Sen: Emini S&P Nasdaq Emini Dow Jones

    Jason Sen: Dax FTSE EuroStoxx

    Jason Sen: FX

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    Protected: OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Danny’s Top Links – January 14, 2021

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Protected: OP: Seeking Balance

    NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Danny’s Top Links – January 13, 2021

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Protected: OP: Setting the Stage

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/31/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/30/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/27/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/25/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video
  • News
    • All
    • Reuters Business
    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    Protected: OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Protected: OP: Seeking Balance

    NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Protected: OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Overdue

    OP: Overdue

    OP: Overdue

    Protected: OP: Overdue

  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
    • All
    • Apple
    • Dow Jones
    • Earnings
    • Facebook (FB)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS)
    • IPO
    • M&A
    • Markets
    • Mining
    • Nasdaq
    • NYSE
    • Russell 2000
    • S&P 500
    • Twitter (TWTR:NYSE)
    • VIX
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX down 0.6pc over the week | Lithium sector springs back to life amid acquisition deals and price rises | China stocks fall as consumer, liquor firms retreat |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX gains 0.4pc | Consumer firms drag China shares lower; Alibaba, Tencent boost Hong Kong | Azure Minerals starts accelerated exploration and resource drilling program at Andover |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 14 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up | Here’s what ASX stockspert Bhavdip143 likes so much about the $35m Chimeric IPO |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX snaps loosing streak | China stocks mixed on profit-taking; consumer, healthcare down | BPH Energy’s investee Advent closer to drilling Baleen gas target, carbon capture and storage research |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 JANUARY: | ASX to slide, Wall St mixed | Felix becomes 2021’s first ASX tech IPO; shares edge upwards |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX falls 0.3pc | iCandy Interactive offers sneak peek into first of four new mobile games | China stocks rebound, Hong Kong hovers near 1-year high |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 JANUARY: | ASX to edge up, Wall St retreats | Airbnb breaks into top 10 US stocks for Australian investors |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 11 JANUARY: | ASX dips | Digital Wine Ventures dominates McLaren Vale wine region as orders surge over holiday season | China stocks slip on Sino-U.S. tensions |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 11-15 Jan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    GMTT – chart of the day – Coffee – Jan 15, 2021

    GMTT – chart of the day – Coffee – Jan 15, 2021

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX down 0.6pc over the week | Lithium sector springs back to life amid acquisition deals and price rises | China stocks fall as consumer, liquor firms retreat |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 15 JANUARY: | ASX to rise | Wall St lifts on Biden stimulus |The potential life-changers on Tolga Kumova’s radar in 2021 |

    The Cotton Row Journal, week of 11-15 Jan

    Jason Sen: Emini S&P Nasdaq Emini Dow Jones

    Jason Sen: Dax FTSE EuroStoxx

    Jason Sen: FX

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Be the Tortoise

    Protected: OP: Be the Tortoise

    OP: Seeking Balance

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Danny’s Top Links – January 14, 2021

    OP: Seeking Balance

    Protected: OP: Seeking Balance

    NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    OP: Setting the Stage

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Danny’s Top Links – January 13, 2021

    OP: Setting the Stage

    Protected: OP: Setting the Stage

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/31/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/30/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/27/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 12/25/2019 for $ES $YM $NQ

  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video
No Result
View All Result
MrTopStep.com LLC
Home Commentary MrTopStep

The 6-year-old who called S&P 1701 back in April

Vikram Rangala by Vikram Rangala
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
in MrTopStep
0 0
0
The 6-year-old who called S&P 1701 back in April
114
SHARES
816
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

We’re midway in our special Opening Print series of Fall 2013 Outlook commentaries from experts. We’ve heard from successful working trader-educators about harmonic patterns, technical analysis, and pivots. We’ve gotten perspectives on the stock market from traders in bonds and forex. I even put in my two cents’ worth. (That two cents is now significantly overvalued thanks to the price inflation conspiracy by JPM, Glencore, and Goldman.)

I wrote that trend-following lies at the heart of any successful trading method. Perhaps because of my bias, I saw nothing but a series of trend following methods from our wide range of trading experts.

A first-grader predicts the stock market rally

ES 09-13 (Daily)  8_20_2012 - 8_20_2013It reminded me of something that happened in mid-April of this year, when my nephew was only six and finishing up first grade. He came to my room one evening to say goodnight and see if he could sneak some screen time before bed. I had a chart of the E-mini up and I asked him where he thought the line on the chart was going to go. That’s when he did something fascinating.

With his thumb and forefinger he measured out the corners of a rectangle, then measured out the same distance three times. He stood on my knees—Ouch!—looked down at me, and declared, “It will go to 700 and a thousand!”

“You mean one thousand seven hundred?”

“That’s what I said!” He turned back to the screen, did it again, and said, “No wait, 700 and a thousand and one.”

“Are you sure?” I asked.

“Uh, yeah. Before your birthday.” Then he added, “Can I play Minecraft?”

“No screen time on school nights,” I said. He hugged me and went to read The Hobbit. I went immediately to the screen and measured out with my fingers. They landed on August 2, before my birthday on the 15th. The median of the price bar that day, between the open at 1698 and the close of 1704.25? 1701.

See the forest, not just the trees

He followed the trend, which is and has been up since the beginning of the Obama administration. That’s not a political jab. Along with everything else the president inherited from George W. Bush was the upturn following the worst of the credit crisis. President Obama can’t and doesn’t take credit for that.  In fact, stocks have been on an uptrend since before he was born.

My nephew was able, in his 6-year-old’s way, to see the forest and not the trees. He saw a clear uptrend because summer was still a blank area of the chart, uncluttered by fluctuations and corrections. He didn’t predict the big dip of June. Neither did a lot of us.

Don’t leave money on the table or risk losses to finance your ego

But once the June correction was happening, it was only those with poor judgement and those with very deep pockets (and maybe a few with both) who simply held onto their long positions and rode it out. It’s not just that it was needless risk. There was money to be made shorting that nice big dip.

If you held onto your longs just to prove you were right, you were inflating the price of your own ego-satisfaction, much the way those banks inflated the price of aluminum. Goldman and their partners literally had the delivery trucks drive in circles from one warehouse to another. We drive our minds in circles, finding yet more bogus reasons why the market is just about to turn around and prove us right. Meanwhile, we’re leaving real money on the table.

A simpler, better way to catch both the long- and short-term trends

There’s a simpler way to be long in the longer term and short in the shorter term. As with everything on this site, this is a hypothetical statement and not meant to influence you to actually buy or sell any financial product such as a futures contract or option. Here’s the secret to being long in the longer term and short in the shorter term: be long calls, and then short the rallies once the short-term trend is clearly down for a little while.

I know I’ve disappointed those of you who want a buy-here-sell-here set of instructions instead of a story and advice about the attitudes of a confident trader, whatever his or her method. You can find consistently good recommendations in Danny’s morning call, though even there you can see him talking about attitude and confidence, and not focusing so much on the trees that you can’t see the forest.

Many ways to apply a few important principles

There are many ways to be long: buy out-of-the-money calls outright (which I love for the leverage), sell puts (though you wouldn’t do this if you’re shorting futures), or do bull call spreads, perhaps with a naked leg. A March 2014 1800 call bought on April 15 or so for under $500 was worth over $1600 on June 1.

And there are several ways to be short futures: scalping, taking one or two positions a day and holding for a few hours, or doing a multi-day swing trade. The hardest part of all of these is planning your exits, both the profit-taking one and the loss-taking, account-saving one. If you haven’t planned for how you will lose money (fast, early, and small fits the bill) you haven’t planned your trade. Trading includes losing, and therefore you must lose skillfully.

With all of these choices, I can’t tell you, nor can anyone else including our working professionals, how you should trade your money. That’s your job. Seriously, that is the job. It beats flipping burgers and waiting tables, trust me. Take the principles that guide all of us who consistently trade well and find your own way to apply them.

Does the method you’re using to trade right now feel right? Does it suit your temperament? I like calm, a leisurely pace, and risk control. I don’t like gambling, excessive risk, or too much adrenaline and testosterone. That’s why I like options. That’s why I day trade best when it becomes like meditation, relaxed, aware, and unemotional.

So is my nephew a trading prodigy? Maybe, but he didn’t have an exit strategy, one that guided both how he’ll take profits and how he’ll take losses. Which means for now, he’s just a smart kid. You and I, on the other hand, are or want to be professionals.

Tomorrow we’ll resume the rest of our Fall Outlook series. If you like what you read, click on the author’s name and read more of his or her work and consider signing up for their trading advisories or joining us in the IM-Pro chat room for a free two-week trial.

That’s all for now. I think I’ll go read The Hobbit and go to bed.

Tags: featured
Previous Post

The dead cat bounce

Next Post

Word of the Day: Weakness

Related Posts

OP: Be the Tortoise
Commentary

OP: Be the Tortoise

Friday, January 15, 2021
OP: Be the Tortoise
Commentary

Protected: OP: Be the Tortoise

Friday, January 15, 2021
OP: Seeking Balance
Commentary

OP: Seeking Balance

Thursday, January 14, 2021
Next Post
Word of the Day: Weakness

Word of the Day: Weakness

Please login to join discussion

Search

No Result
View All Result

MrTopStep Live Stream

Popular Posts

  • NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    2305 shares
    Share 935 Tweet 571
  • S&P 500 projections: What the locals in the pit think

    244 shares
    Share 98 Tweet 61
  • Tuesday more of the same; be long, but careful

    237 shares
    Share 95 Tweet 59
  • The dead cat bounce

    189 shares
    Share 76 Tweet 47
  • After 6 up days in a row, we’re looking for the S&P to go south

    170 shares
    Share 68 Tweet 43

Subscribe to our Newsletter

The information in these Market Commentaries do not constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Connect

Facebook Twitter Youtube

Office Hours

Monday-Friday: 7:30 AM- 4:00 PM
Order online 24/7

Ph: (207) 358-8545‬

email: info@mrtopstep.com

We Accept

© 2020 - MrTopStep All Rights Reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
  • Charts
  • Commentary
  • Education
  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video

© 2020 - MrTopStep All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In