Markets are mixed, as was the election. Biden looks like a squeaky greased winner, with Repubs keeping the Senate and gaining in the House. The big losers by a long shot, are the media and the pollsters.
A drive into and out of the South Delta today showed nothing remaining, for all crops. There are still a few fields of cotton and soy north of Hwy 49 (the Helena crossing) that are waiting, but weather is perfect to get this out. Surprisingly the cotton fields show little to no stringouts or lint on the ground. The market price at 70c disagrees with this, as it is saying production is below 16.0 Mb, maybe by 1/2 Mb or more. "Who are you going to believe? Me? Or your own lyin' eyes, or the market?"
We turned in balance sheet estimates to the press yesterday. Production at 15.9 Mb, exports at 15.0 Mb, end stocks at 5.65 Mb, ratio at 32.5%, and world end stocks at 99 Mb.
Since late spring, the world has lost +5 Mb, and price has risen from the 58c area to 70c. Fair or not? In that run, other forces helped, such as the $, rising row crops, and a general public consensus of more inflation. We are short for a short duration, into notice. Hard to see any further than that, but for the moment the rolls and liquidation, added to harvest pressure, should be enough to warrant a deeper correction.
The first leg down from 7260 to 6806 is 454 ticks. 50% back is 7033, and 62% is 7087. Today's high was in between, so this may have been a minor "b" leg up. If an equal "c" leg follows, target is 6618, which puts Dec right back to the area in which it spent 6 weeks trying to get through. A couple of seasonal lows are due on 11/14 and 11/21. Sell quick rallies.