Sales at 132 krb were a little on the shy side, with China high at 50, Pak 2nd at 31 and Bang on the low end at -44. New crop sales were good at 56 krb, Guatemala in for 26. Shipments of 292 krb were best in 6 weeks. Compared to the last 5 years, total shipments are in 1st place. The % of cumulative shipments vs the target is 24%, also in 1st place. And, the avg shipments for the 13 week period is in 1st place.
As good as shipments are, sales are a mixed bag. The sales avg is in the middle of the 6 years, and the cumulative stands at 3rd. The total sales today vs the target is 65%, in a range of 44% to 70%. Once the Nov crop report is out, it will be easier to project exports, keeping a range of 60% to 65% of total supply.
The sales avg this year is 212 krb, and excluding the high/low, the range is 320/120. Assuming a roll of 1.5 Mb, sales need to avg 164 krb/week to make target. Shipments need to avg 278 krb.
Another macro all-in positive day for the Board, aided by a big drop in the $. The almighty Buck has been sideways since late July, but today dropped back below the median level of that range. The $ peaked at 2a the morning after the election, when betting odds reached 70% for Trump. A Biden victory is now being priced in, and expectations are for a much higher deficit and debt. Also much higher inflation. We remain negative cotton, and short.
The bounce from 6800 satisfied the 62% retrace. If you missed selling +7100, this is about as good a place to try again. Regards spreads, the lead Z/H has dropped from -50 to -110. We recommended this spread at -50, and see it widening further. Surprisingly, the N/Z21 spread has gained from +180 a month ago to +320 today. We will monitor this spread for a potential bear position.