Another Wet Monday
Poor harvest weather has become the norm across Dixie, with the Delta states getting rain on a blue Monday. The system will push into the SE on Tue/Wed, aggravating harvest. This crop was late to begin with, as spring rainfall was steady, all the way into mid July. Now the harvest is getting backed up, and all crops are vying with cotton for their time with personnel and equipment. After this front passes, the forecast is good, and it looks like it will be the weekend before our boys can get with it again.
Outside markets were mildly in favor of a positive day, as the $ was down a touch, the SP, corn, and wheat were higher. COT reports indicate some fat long positions in soy and wheat, while cotton has pushed just above the 50% decile of net longs for specs. Copper is a market to keep an eye on, with heavy longs, and spreads that just went to a little carry.
The short side remains attractive, but the wait is testing nerves. A late planting, then rain after rain, are pushing harvest pressure forward, and keeping prices firm. What began with potential yield records has turned into a pretty good crop, but one that is proving elusive for the picker and gin. This year's harvest low will be a late one, likely in Nov, maybe all the way to Dec notice. Hold that line, maintain shorts.
Once again, 6600 was rejected. Same old song, different verse. For 11 days, Dec has sandwiched itself in a 230 tick range, 6693 to 6465, so the breakout points are easy to see. Chart below shows the history of the market at 6600 for 8 years, with 6 bottoms and 3 tops. Seasonal is negative into 10/02 and 11/14.