This office experienced computer issues all day, so today's letter is minimal. Cotton was a coattail follower of the SP and soy today, with a vaccine that just may be ready for the masses in March. USDA report is released 1100 CDT on Tue.
Spread action has our attention, as the Dec/Mar reached the level where we are out of the bear side, and will no longer trade this. Full country carry for this spread is -285, and today's -175 leaves some room to move lower, but one also has to risk much to make that. As Dec has put more carry not only to Mar, but the other 2020/21 contracts, this movement has elevated the spread between July/Dec 21. This spread traded near +100 from Apr to Aug, and today stands at +325. This is a rather fat 750 points above full carry, and a carryout of 5.75 Mb or so will not be able to support such an invert.
The multiple timing events of the last week of Oct, and the reversal of 10/28 remain the dominant features on the chart. A 2nd leg lower equal to the first targets 6640. Trend line support is at 6600. A seasonal low is due 11/21, sell quick rallies.