Quotes by TradingView
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Premium: TradeChat
No Result
View All Result
MrTopStep.com LLC
  • News
    • All
    • Reuters Business
    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    Protected: OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    Bloomberg Opinion: Mind the Gap

  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Chat Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
    • All
    • Apple
    • Dow Jones
    • Earnings
    • Facebook (FB)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS)
    • IPO
    • M&A
    • Markets
    • Mining
    • Nasdaq
    • NYSE
    • Russell 2000
    • S&P 500
    • Twitter (TWTR:NYSE)
    • VIX
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 APRIL: Zip soars 17% but miners keep ASX flat | Digital Wine Ventures posts fivefold increase in WineDepot orders, appoints COO | China blue-chips rise as export growth highlights global recovery |

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 APRIL: ASX to edge up | S&P 500 ends modestly lower | Uranium explorer 92 Energy eyes ASX listing for mid-April |

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 9 APRIL: ASX to slip | Wall St poised to end higher | Thinking of getting into ASX water stocks? Here’s what the experts think |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 8 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 edges higher | Investors want quality copper stocks, Peak Minerals is on the radar |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 07 APRIL: ASX hits best close since COVID with 0.6% rise | Crowd Media calls on investee technology to produce ‘Digital Dom’ talking head | Indian shares rise after RBI holds key rates steady |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 06 APRIL: ASX adds 0.8% as travel stocks take flight | Golden Deeps widens Namibia drilling plan to include historic copper-vanadium mine | China stocks fall as healthcare, consumer companies weigh |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 6 APRIL: ASX to rise | Dow and S&P 500 reset record highs | These ASX explorers say ‘company makers’ still lurk in one of WA’s oldest, richest gold provinces |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts
    Jack Broz Webinar banner

    Jason Sen: Dax EuroStoxx FTSE

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Nvidia Stock to Breakout?

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    SpyGate Logo Program Trading Dector

    SpyGate : Bots Sitting the Morning Out

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN)  / April 13, 2021

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN) / April 13, 2021

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 APRIL: Zip soars 17% but miners keep ASX flat | Digital Wine Ventures posts fivefold increase in WineDepot orders, appoints COO | China blue-chips rise as export growth highlights global recovery |

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 APRIL: ASX to edge up | S&P 500 ends modestly lower | Uranium explorer 92 Energy eyes ASX listing for mid-April |

    Bloomberg Chart of the Day

    Jason Sen: Gold, silver, WTI Crude

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 13, 2021

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    Protected: OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 12, 2021

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 9, 2021

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Nvidia Stock to Breakout?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: The Russell 2000 (IWM)

    Chart of the Day: Ford Stock

    Chart of the Day: Ford Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video
  • News
    • All
    • Reuters Business
    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    Protected: OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    OP: Spring Break? Low Market Volumes Continue

    Bloomberg Opinion: Mind the Gap

  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Chat Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
    • All
    • Apple
    • Dow Jones
    • Earnings
    • Facebook (FB)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS)
    • IPO
    • M&A
    • Markets
    • Mining
    • Nasdaq
    • NYSE
    • Russell 2000
    • S&P 500
    • Twitter (TWTR:NYSE)
    • VIX
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 APRIL: Zip soars 17% but miners keep ASX flat | Digital Wine Ventures posts fivefold increase in WineDepot orders, appoints COO | China blue-chips rise as export growth highlights global recovery |

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 APRIL: ASX to edge up | S&P 500 ends modestly lower | Uranium explorer 92 Energy eyes ASX listing for mid-April |

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 12 APRIL: Miners weigh as ASX sags with US futures | Fatfish Group makes acquisition ahead of South East Asia BNPL rollout | China, HK stocks fall on persisting worries of policy tightening |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 12 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 resets record high again | Arcadia looms large as an African lithium near-producer |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 9 APRIL: ASX to slip | Wall St poised to end higher | Thinking of getting into ASX water stocks? Here’s what the experts think |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 8 APRIL: ASX to rise | S&P 500 edges higher | Investors want quality copper stocks, Peak Minerals is on the radar |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 07 APRIL: ASX hits best close since COVID with 0.6% rise | Crowd Media calls on investee technology to produce ‘Digital Dom’ talking head | Indian shares rise after RBI holds key rates steady |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 06 APRIL: ASX adds 0.8% as travel stocks take flight | Golden Deeps widens Namibia drilling plan to include historic copper-vanadium mine | China stocks fall as healthcare, consumer companies weigh |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 6 APRIL: ASX to rise | Dow and S&P 500 reset record highs | These ASX explorers say ‘company makers’ still lurk in one of WA’s oldest, richest gold provinces |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts
    Jack Broz Webinar banner

    Jason Sen: Dax EuroStoxx FTSE

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Nvidia Stock to Breakout?

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    SpyGate Logo Program Trading Dector

    SpyGate : Bots Sitting the Morning Out

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN)  / April 13, 2021

    GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN) / April 13, 2021

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: AFTERNOON WRAP 13 APRIL: Zip soars 17% but miners keep ASX flat | Digital Wine Ventures posts fivefold increase in WineDepot orders, appoints COO | China blue-chips rise as export growth highlights global recovery |

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 13 APRIL: ASX to edge up | S&P 500 ends modestly lower | Uranium explorer 92 Energy eyes ASX listing for mid-April |

    Bloomberg Chart of the Day

    Jason Sen: Gold, silver, WTI Crude

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 13, 2021

    OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    Protected: OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 12, 2021

    OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    Protected: OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    OP: Summer Stock Market Slowdown Comes Early

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix

    links

    Danny’s Top Links – April 9, 2021

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
    • Webinars
    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Nvidia Stock to Breakout?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: The Russell 2000 (IWM)

    Chart of the Day: Ford Stock

    Chart of the Day: Ford Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    GMTT / Chart of the day / Apple / Oct 27, 2020

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Corn, What Changed Today?

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Stocks Getting Serious; Quick Word on Beans

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    NASDOG.com: Full For a Bull

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

    HotSpots for 01/02/2020 for $ES $YM $NQ

  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video
No Result
View All Result
MrTopStep.com LLC
Home Commentary MrTopStep

Broz: The next big trade will be in bonds in fall 2013

MrTopStep by MrTopStep
Friday, August 16, 2013
in MrTopStep
0 0
1
Broz: The next big trade will be in bonds in fall 2013
43
SHARES
308
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

I sat down yesterday in our offices across the street from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for a chat with veteran bond trader and popular educator and trading coach  Jack Broz. Jack often drops by after the bond market closes to get coffee, draft his next newsletter, and answer questions from clients and participants in the IM Pro chat room, where he is one of the moderators.

Once he was done, I asked if we could just record our typical Tuesday afternoon conversation instead of doing a formal article. Actually, I just turned on the recorder, but he knew it was on. I think. Anyway, he gave a wealth of insights and ended with a surprisingly confident and specific prediction for the rest of the year. Read on.

A lot of people, both actual traders and pundits, are predicting a drop in the S&P 500, which you follow. What do you think will happen?

30-year-bond-monthlyAs we sit here right now, the S&P is below 1690, which I think is a crucial price. Going beneath that means we’re [likely to see more] downside. Near-term I’m looking for 1669 in the S&P. It certainly could go as low as 1656.

Now, if it makes it back up to 1690 and holds there, it makes this whole [downward] move just kind of a head fake. Back over 1690, I’m on the up side. I’d look for it to take on the high of 1705.

And above 1705, I mean, I have targets up there. There’s a 1741. If they re-show me strength, I’m not going to say, “Well they can’t do this,” and just sell it. Because obviously they can do it.

So the drop to as low as 1656 could be a head fake. That means the head fake could be a pretty big move. A 30-handle head fake?

Well, my point is that because the movements are so massive, thirty handles isn’t really anything. To me, the bears have done something by taking out 1690. Now, if the bears are really going to take control, they’ve got to get below that 1669. If they do that, then they should go to 1656. I have stuff that’s lower, but that’s a pretty good start. I’d need to check my charts but I think there’s a 1626; that’s a pretty important number.

It’s funny how so many of our numbers coincide. Almost every time we talk and you mention a level, it’s significant for me, too. Even though we’re coming at the charts with very different methods.

That’s why the MTS [IM-Pro chat] room is so cool.

What is your outlook for other markets, and in your case, bonds in particular?

I turned bearish on the bonds on July 31st. If you look at a chart since then, it’s just kind of going sideways, but the tops never really took anything out that damaged the move.

Today, we’re starting to fall back to the downside. There are points I’m looking at. In the bond market, we’re dealing with the 3.75 yield, which was 132.21. Let’s start with that, because that’s going to tell you what’s going to happen.

It did go a bit lower today, but yields are so massive that it could be 10 or 12 ticks on either side as they fight over it. So make that the first thing: Who controls 132.21 in the 30-year bonds?

Because down below, my target on this move is 129. In other words, three points on this move. And the next hurdle really is this yield, [then we can] break this thing down.
Now, on the upside—and again, I’ve got to visualize my newsletter and my charts—133.15 is going to have some importance. But where this big downside move starts potentially to get in trouble, that’s like 135.23 or 135.25.

So we could move three points right here and I’m still more inclined to find strength and sell it because we have triggered this move to 129.

You trade based on price levels. But do you even think about things like quantitative easing when you’re planning your trades?

To me that’s all built into the market already. And I think that’s something that a lot of traders have to get away from. When did quantitative easing start? Wasn’t it around 2009?

So the market pretty much knew that was going to happen, probably in mid-2008. And it was built into the prices. And I think newer traders–or maybe just traders–have to remove themselves from that and just say, the market has already built that in.

Here’s another buzzword or phrase that I’m curious to hear people’s opinions about: flight to safety. As stocks drop, are people going to go to gold, bonds, or something else?

I’ve always looked at the bonds as a safe-haven bargain and I think the world still does. So if the stock market weakens, I do think bonds are a safe holding place to put their money.

There’s constantly money flowing between these markets, but to me the idea of safe haven is when there is major world unrest. People start to say, “Where will my money be the safest?” and as messed up as we are, we’re still a pretty safe country. So the money goes to the bond market.

How are you advising your students and clients and the people in the chat room to prepare for whatever may happen?

Well, the thing that we are, first and foremost, is traders. My clients just want to trade. We try to think of the bigger picture, which, in both S&P and bonds, is a little bit bearish.

So if we get into a market short, we maybe a little more aggressive in our position size and in holding that trade. That’s because our short term picture and our bigger picture have kind of lined up.

But if you end up getting into a scalping session where there is much more of an upside bias, the market’s telling me it wants to go up. So I’ve got to buy it. But the big picture is bearish, so I’ve got to buy a little bit smaller. I’ve got to be more of a scalper. I’ve got to be more careful.

So you’re looking for the convergence (or divergence) between longer term and shorter term?

Yeah, ideally we get that [convergence]. The last two days (Aug. 12 and 13) in the bond market we’ve had that. Our bigger picture is bearish and our shorter-term picture was bearish. It makes for a smoother trade.

You feel a little more confident putting your shorts on. I know the question you’re asking, but it’s as if this office (points to room) is the market and we’re trying to trade just that (makes 4-inch circle with hands).

Because there’s the potential for some bigger moves, my clients who understand options or spreading may come to me and say, “You’re really bearish about this, aren’t you?”

And I just tell them, “Yeah, I am.” Because I know that they’re thinking of working with options or a spread, which is very doable for a long-term trade.

Did I answer your question?

Yeah, you did. OK, this is the bonus round. Is there some bit of wisdom that you return to at a time like this? As we go into fall there’s going to be uncertainty, maybe a big drop in stocks. Is there something you go back to in order to deal with that?

For me, it’s almost a welcome situation. When I was new on the floor—I can’t even say I was a new trader because I was terrible—there were so many tremendous moves. When Long Term Capital Management blew up and…I can’t think of the other one, but there were these huge moves that I was not taking part in. I didn’t have the ability to. I didn’t have the money to. And I remember thinking, “Wow.” The list of those is like this (describes tall stack with hands).

But as I’ve become more…seasoned?…with the markets, it’s like, “OK, this is going to be a very good move in the market. Let’s be ready for it.” It’s more kind of that thought.

I do think, since you brought it up, that people have to be aware. They’ve been flocking to the gold market, when the big moves were. And to the crude market, when the big moves were.

Well, no one’s flocking to the bond market. No one’s beating down my door. And I tell you what? They’re going to miss it. The move the bond market’s going to give up and the trade you’re going to get are going to make gold look it was stagnant.

Thank you, Jack.

Tags: featuredybangf
Previous Post

Deutsche Bank Has Six Top Tech Stocks to Buy and Two to Sell ASAP

Next Post

For blastoff, the market needs thrust

Related Posts

OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports
Commentary

OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

Tuesday, April 13, 2021
OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports
Commentary

Protected: OP: Slow Trading Ahead of Earnings Reports

Tuesday, April 13, 2021
OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?
Commentary

OP: S&P Futures Hit Another Record High, Reason for Concern?

Monday, April 12, 2021
Next Post
For blastoff, the market needs thrust

For blastoff, the market needs thrust

Please login to join discussion

Search

No Result
View All Result

MrTopStep Live Stream

Popular Posts

  • NYSE Holidays 2020 Stock Market Schedule

    NYSE Holidays 2021 | Stock Market Calendar

    2805 shares
    Share 1135 Tweet 696
  • S&P 500 projections: What the locals in the pit think

    275 shares
    Share 110 Tweet 69
  • Tuesday more of the same; be long, but careful

    245 shares
    Share 98 Tweet 61
  • Futures Circuit Breakers / Limits for today

    214 shares
    Share 86 Tweet 54
  • The dead cat bounce

    204 shares
    Share 82 Tweet 51

Subscribe to our Newsletter

The information in these Market Commentaries do not constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Connect

Facebook Twitter Youtube

Office Hours

Monday-Friday: 7:30 AM- 4:00 PM
Order online 24/7

Ph: (207) 358-8545‬

email: info@mrtopstep.com

We Accept

© 2020 - MrTopStep All Rights Reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Products
    • Chatroom Login
    • Wyckoff Trader
    • MIM
    • Polaris Trading Group
    • IM Pro Trading Chat Room
    • The Opening Print
    • FREE Daily Opening Print
  • Stocks
  • Charts
  • Commentary
  • Education
  • NYSE Holidays
  • Video

© 2020 - MrTopStep All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
Free Webinar: MrTopStep Year End

Free Webinar: Looking at the Year End and 2021

With Danny Riley and the Team

Monday, December 7th @ 7pm ET

Register Now! (Limited room)