Today started with 300k ESU and 1k SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1629.30 – 1638.50. Wednesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPU pit session trading range was 1639.00 – 1625.00 before settling at 1632.20, up 4 handles. In Asia, 10 of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai Comp. -0.19%, Hang Seng +0.84%, Nikkei +0.91%). In Europe 10 of 12 markets were trading higher (DAX +0.12%, FTSE +0.66%). Roger_Volz (05:17) Vodafone Confirms Talks With Verizon $160 billion good…EU data ok, italian consumer bus confidence beat. BTP auction in line; German unemployment mostly stable. UK tables Syria for now fears of imminent strike on Syria abated…pulls GC/CL…dx_F going for I/H/S neckline. see ES sell around 4:45 retests yesterday afternoon low 1629.25 area – no Syria = no delay of taper. India/Indonesia 2% bounce some pressure off EEMs; 10y 2.78%. the UN secretary-general said time was needed to investigate allegations that the regime had used chemical weapons against civilians. now UK waiting for UN report and Syria wants other sites investigated claims rebels used poison gas. In the U.S., GDP checked in at 2.5 vs exp of 2.2. Q2 real GDP revised to +2.5%, at +0.8 pt slightly better than expected, and real final sales now +1.9%. Includes better exports and inventories than assumed but lower S&L govt at -0.5% (was +0.3% and rev reflects less building). Q1 wages were rev +$10.7b, suggesting more ability to spend ahead. GDP prices were +0.8%, very tame. The data show a better but still modest economy. U.S. initial claims checked in at 331k vs exp of 332k. We are heading into month end and the three day holiday…
UK: Prime Minister Carney reaches the limits of forward guidance. After the BoE governor’s speech yesterday, JPM’s A. Monks believes the quote below implies that the MPC will not add more stimulus if market expectations stay where they are and the recovery proceeds as expected.: “The upward move in market expectations of where Bank Rate will head in future could, at the margin, feed into the effective financial conditions facing the real economy. The MPC will be watching those conditions closely. If they tighten, and the recovery seems to be falling short of the strong growth we need, we will consider carefully whether, and how best, to stimulate the recovery further. Our forward guidance was clear that, although we would not reduce the stimulus until the recovery is secure, we would if necessary provide more.”
UK Cameron in Parliament debate on Syria: ‘Not about taking sides, regime change or invasion. GERMANY’S MERKEL, BRITAIN’S CAMERON AGREE SYRIA CANNOT GO UNPUNISHED – GERMAN GOVT STATEMENT. Russia sends warships to mediterranean as Syria tension rises while GERMANY’S MERKEL CALLED ON PUTIN TO USE UN SECURITY COUNCIL DISCUSSIONS FOR A “QUICK, UNANIMOUS INTERNATIONAL REACTION. However, moving slowly before hitting them – with the big sticks seems to be the way things are moving now.
william_blount’s premarket morning email: good morning – today is series s1H and the SPILL PRESSURE is 79 DOWN 21 UP. Yesterday the name of the game was WHO OWNS 1632.5. It will be today as well. The market struck a perfect balance at 1635 CASH as to the ½ retrace zone. TODAY, we have INVERTED T’S and there will be AT LEAST 1 GOOD UP. Those T’S are tight as well. FRANKLY, the BULLS do not want to see price anywhere NEAR THOSE T’s. Later, the chat room was reminded by william_blount (08:10) WHO OWNS 1632.5????????
Today’s pit session opened three handles lower at 1629.00 – 1629.30, marking the low before trending higher through the morning, printing a high of 1644.50 at 10:29, going into the European close. The strength was attributed to an uptick in sentiment following headlines that military action against Syria might be delayed, emerging market relief laying the groundwork to firmer overseas markets and the premarket economic data showing signs of um, growth. The Sam_E (09:43) if i see 1646 will short one may theorize that they bid them up into lunch. squeeze the orange. not sure they all want to go home long into a long weekend with warships all over the place. we have a 3 waver up so far – textbook.
By 12:35 the index faded back to 1638 area as volatility slowed during the sideways to lower decline. This is the same pattern that we have seen numerous times over the summer – a slowdown following the European close. Posted earlier this morning by John_Monaco (09:10) tomorrow is an MSCI, Morgan Stanley Commodity Index reweighting. Imbalances should be interesting today & tomorrow http://bit.ly/17oTLrM At 2:15 the SPU was trading 1640 area before getting hit by a sell program electing small stops under 1637 area and taking the index down to 1634.50 area before bouncing. The early look on the closing imbalance showed 71% to the sell side, but that got paired off and turned into a small $38M to the buy side. The cash close traded 1636 area before settling at 1636.70, up 4.5 handles on the day.
Sam_E yes i have a note on my screen that says in big bold letters. THE PIT IS REAL. EVERYTHING ELSE IS BS. there is a real difference between pit highs and lows and the ones on your chart. know the difference. the pit rules the roost.
the pit plays in the real world. globex is the dream world. We agree with Sam!