Top FX Headlines: Here’s When We’ll Know the US Dollar Has Bottomed

Commentary, Forex, News

Talking Points:

– DXY Index continues to trade below outside engulfing bar from July 26; a break of the high at 94.29 would mark a ‘higher low.’
– In a sign of momentum shifting back in the US Dollar’s favor, EUR/USD closed below the daily 13-EMA yesterday for the first time since June 27.
– Retail crowd positioning continues to shift as the US Dollar rebound has gathered pace in August.
The US Dollar continues to grind higher versus most of its major counterparts, as a clear effort at establishing a short-term bottom is under way. Certainly, after yesterday’s July US Advance Retail Sales report and subsequent revision higher to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth tracker for Q3’17 (from +3.5% to +3.7%), it appears that economic data momentum is starting to shift in a more favorable direction for the US Dollar.
It might not take all that much for a short-term US Dollar bottom to be established, given how extremely bearish sentiment is for the US Dollar in general. One way to see how sentiment is starting to shift is to look at the Daily Sentiment Index, or DSI.

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