These markets have gotten real soft since the early morning push and at this time are trade very lackadaisical heading into the second stage of today’s session. It feels like they could be waiting for tomorrows employment data, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some kind of erratic move later in the day, especially one that would head south. I still like the chances to see the daily pivot prices because they lined up with the downside # levels, but that scenario hasn’t quite developed at this time.
Since making its current high of 1658.00 I thought the s&p would be primed for a move south with a trade under its settle / pivotal price area. However, the all important opening range of 1652.20-1652.50 squashed that idea in its tracks when this future made a last low of 1652.70 pit / 1652.50 mini from its current high. A bounce to a high of 1656.00 / 1656.25 led to a last low of 1654.00 / 1653.75 as this future has stayed inside this range for close to the last 2 hours. I would think a move under the opening range will be the tonic to take them to the 1647.80 price and will see if a continued slide finds the 1641.40 price. New highs still have the daily fib of 1661.30 on its mind, followed by a target of 1666.30.
The Nasdaq is giving clues that it may want lower waters with a move under its opening print of 3127.50, but at this time refuses to make new lows. After finding its opening tic for a low earlier, this future did find a high of 3135.75, failing to test the current high of 3138.00. It followed with a move to the 3124.75 price, which saw a bounce / double test high of 3133.25 in a 20 minute period. A low of 3125.25 held new lows at bay once again, as it makes another move above its opening tic. Every chance to make new lows signals stagnation, but the failure to do so could see new highs, especially if that double top, last high of 3133.25 gets breached. Not much going on. Still looking for a move to the 3116.75-3112.00 area before the end of the day, but that all depends on the 3133.25 price. The early update did carry a move to levels of 3141.00 and 3143.75 and those prices remain targets up top.
The bonds continued a trend lower. It was mentioned that holding the low of 129.04 that led to its high was resistance and that price is still the key moving forward. It was the last high which saw new lows at 128.22. A bounce to the 128.28 price followed with new lows at 128.19 and when it followed with a bounce to that same high of 128.28, it thwarted any further advancement. Minutes ago this future did make new lows at 128.18 and if there is nary a bounce, look for further erosion to test levels of 128.11, 128.02, and overall objective at 127.21 for today. I sure would like to be short at this time because that 127.21 price today is a huge level to long. It’s early enough and to see this future drift another point isn’t out of the question, but an overall long shot before the end of the day. The only way it can reverse current momentum is with a move above 129.05.
