Tuesday, January 19, 2021

TopNotch Trading: 2014 Year-End Forecast

I will rely on the weekly channel trend to guide my trading ideas into the year end.

TimHaefke-2013-2
Tim Haefke of TopNotch Trading

As you well know the top of that weekly channel came in at 2067.50 last week when this future made a mini high of 2072.25 / pit high on Friday at 2072.50. I eventually retraced off that opening range of 2071.00-2072.50 on Fridays session and made its way under the 2067.50 price, settling under that level by days end. Settle price of 2061.80.

When the week opened the weekly channel trend priced itself 4.75 handles higher to a price of 2072.20 big / 2072.25 mini, signaling a meaningful reason why that channel brings those current highs to light. Tuesday did see a pit retest spot on that high of 2072.50 from Friday, while the mini made new highs at 2073.00.

Rejecting immediately from that 2072.50 pit / 2073.00 mini high led a move 10 handles lower on Tuesdays daily trade finding a pit print low of 2063.50 / offer board of 2063.00.
The mini printed a low at 2062.75 which coincided with todays daily fib target at 2062.80 currently. The following bounce is holding the previous days settle price at 2067.50. The question asked at this time is whether or not a retest of that low will be offered movinginto the 2nd half of Tuesdays trade.

Overall it will be interesting to see what level the weekly channel trend goes to in the weeks that follow. Due to the ascending nature of that channel, it will continue to see higher levels heading into the years end. I for one think the Nasdaq can possibly run to an all important quarterly settle price of 4461.50 in March of 2000. With that in mind, it warrants just how much further the s&p will run. The last question at hand is if the
s&p will settle above that weekly trend line in the short term future.

The first sign would be a signal of strength, but the tendency if it does settle above that weekly channel would have it get hit the following week. It could be a HUGE head fake lying in wait if it does indeed settle above any price target by years end. Time will tell.

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