Market indices, making new highs in week 29 and all except the YM closing above the weekly open and leaving trailing open gaps, maintains momentum above the key moving averages. Volume has been as expected for summertime, so if able to find those early AM setups and close it up prior to the eastern standard lunchtime, seems to be the best strategy going for the day trader.
BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?
VIX levels dipping even lower in week 29 and holding under 10 surely has made this market a surprise on many fronts. The RTY continues to pick up volume as she breaches the 8K mark and shows on intraday trend just how well price momentum can move.
Earnings season is under way and with NFLX/MSFT data being positive, seemed to be enough to lift the other FANG/FAAMG stocks. Don’t forget about those permabears…they are licking their chops.
Technically by the charts, the indices open gaps from week 28/29 are the first targets downside on any pullback. Watch for any pullback to also test support off the nearby 10 and trailing 50 period moving averages.
With momentum holding above the 10ema and sitting at all time highs, monitoring the daily Murray Math levels upside may be used as an additional tool on forward projection. Many US sessions have opened with the globex trend already played out making the regular trading hours that more difficult. Watch for the chop if price action opens near the globex high and lows and gauge the momentum when the setup looks like a high probability trend.
As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.
Key events in the market this week are earnings, FOMC and GDP.
Technical momentum probabilityREMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.
Rinse and Repeat….with all indices now above key moving averages, back within all time highs and a low VIX, monitoring for any pullback to the open gaps and or nearby 10/50 moving averages to the downside would be prudent. The case for higher highs is just as strong and whether you trade the intraday futures or indices ETF’s, momentum clearly resting on the uptrend is a much stronger play.
Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks are always opportune times to re-enter the trend as the SPY and QQQ were opportune in week 29.
I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.
Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.
Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.
The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.