Collective Intelligence!
Today started with 300k ESU and 1.9k SPU traded on Globex, e-mini trading range was 1649.75 – 1644.50. Monday’s pit session trading range was 1643.00 – 1656.50 before settling at 1644.90, down 6.2 handles. Roger_Volz (05:28amCT) EUR strength / DXY weakness standing out…dxy 1st channel 80.95 then opens to June lows…daily OS 80.53-80.41 / yields 2.819% some flight safety Asia rout, NZ only in green in region / Japan June All Industry Activity Index falls 0.6% m/m, from +1.1% in the previous month / bhp -2.4% last looked..Operator of Japan’s damaged Fukushima nuclear plant says 300 tonnes of highly radioactive water has leaked. ZN trying to leave 2x bottom if can hold 5dma 125’06. TURKEY’S CENTRAL BANK RAISES OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE TO 7.75%….outflows must be hurting. [URBN] beat earnings estimates post close yesterday and today premarket [HD] beats estimates stock up +10% on housing strength / [BBY] beats by $0.20, beats on revenue and [BKS] falls off the shelf after disappointing.
The calendar is playing a big role – volumes are VERY thin and attendance is extremely light, creating an atmosphere full of liquidity air pockets. Meanwhile, we are coming up on a month full of major macro catalysts (Fed tapering, Bernanke successor, debt ceiling, German elections, and more). In this type of an environment there is very little incentive for people to aggressively expand risk – JPM. Pre Jackson Hole and the FOMC minutes tomorrow, is a short cover rally the right direction for the equity markets to head? http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/8/20/tomorrows-fed-minutes.html
Larry_K (06:38) sell the rip? @RVchartchatter aka Roger_Volz (06:38) not yet – have too much room NQ. Sam_E (06:46) this nq pattern could turn parabolic to the upside / 3104 likely. Roger_Volz (06:49) thought we see that yesterday match for me…ES 60 min channel bottom 1643.50; yesterday high 1657 additional 1657.50-1659. william_blount (08/19/2013 – 14:15:42): last hr high and run at 1655-57 again IF 1651.5 converted….CRITICAL to get through the 1651.5 spot <<< THAT WAS YESTERDAY– see how the 1651.5 FUNCTIONS as MOJO.
Today’s pit hours opened fractionally higher at 1645.50 -1645.20, traded an early low of 1643.50 before grinding, then trending, higher through the morning trade. The S&P 500 was slowly inching higher in the opening 30 minutes as the financials were soft, down 1.2%. Small buy programs began to trigger as the algos were hunting for near-term buy stops.
[AAPL] was down over $6 before bouncing as the indices caught a bid searching for near-term buy stops. Kathy- (09:23) AAPL has retraced sm bearish Deep Crab 61.8% at 501.51, Chart from couple days ago anticipated potential breach to 514.53, now a hold below 501.51 implies attempt to retrace the larger bearish Crab & ABCD 8/18 chart: http://screencast.com/t/iLGd5nDsDfz current chart: http://screencast.com/t/2QMNSQRpHwi
iceChat (09:04) SB buys 300 big S&P’s 1647 area. @tbg4321 aka Kathy (09:06) A hold above 1649.75 will change my intraday bias to upside. (09:38) testing Fridays settle 1651.10 & y’days opening range. @tbg4321 (10:56) 1655 region is a very strong CLVN, this is typically a rejection pt, potential breach to test 1657 confluence tgt, at that juncture, I’ll stalk a short.
PivotBoss (11:04) short term high might be in for ES...looking to hunt the dip – if it comes… The SPU traded an intraday high of 1656.50 and the Nasdaq traded an intraday high of 3097.00 before fading back midday. Nicely done! Targeted premarket >> Larry_K (06:38) sell the rip? @RVcartchatter aka Roger_Volz (06:38) not yet Roger_Volz (06:42) have too much room NQ Sam_E (06:46) this nq pattern could turn parabolic to the upside — 3104 likely.
Another timely post in the chat room: Kathy (11:07) NQ has reached the bearish Shark PRZ 3097 … this is a probable C pt of emerging Deep Crab, the extreme tgt for the C pt is 3100.5. CL, as long as price holds below blue trendline keeps dnside extended tgts in play, a hold above that trendline lessens the probability Kathy (11:13) I am short NQ 3093.25, tgts 3091.25, 3084.25 & 3080.25 – ideal tgt is bullish 5-0 at 3080.25. risk is above 3097 until 1st scale but watching renko chart 3094.5 BB midline
A lil sumthin for everybody…Bonds going out right on their highs. Tony_LaPorta (09:17) i am long yen and bonds….i see no reason to cover those today. Carley_Garner (09:25) We agree with Tony, we might have finally seen some sort of low in Treasuries (although I admit it fell further/harder than we had originally anticipated). Here is a monthly chart of the ZN: http://images.thestreet.com/rmimg/151683.png From our newsletter: We are wondering when the public will begin viewing Treasuries as a value. We’ve seen the panicked liquidation, but in their haste we’ve yet to see the realization that the risk free rate for 10 years is nearing 3%. This might not sound like much based on historical standards, but this is the best we’ve seen in years. It wasn’t that long ago that investors were willing to buy T-bills at a negative yield to ensure the return OF their capital (without regard to return ON capital). The monthly chart reveals a market that is drastically oversold; it is also near the long-term trend-line support. We aren’t giving up on the idea of higher bond prices (and lower yields) yet. The Fed has worked hard to keep rates low, they might find it worthwhile to “talk their book” in the FOMC minutes released tomorrow. Tony_LaPorta (13:56) short-covering in the bonds and yen is not done yet tomorrow should be the “get me out at any price” day — watch asia this whole short-squeeze started there. when you keep your positions small and your convictions big you can afford to trade with a view…
gary_t (14:26) vix 14.54 – 0.56/ $VIX $CALLs have been selling today / $bkx 64.65 + 0.81 / nyse vol 430mm– nyse vol 401mm vol. / lower volume today. redliontrader (14:26) Strong A/D lines NYSE 3.6:1, RUT (RISK) 7:1 and S&P 9:1. Dow up just 28 basis points but Russell 2,000 up 1.5% with 86% of its stocks up on the day. The MiM showed an early, (14:30) closing imbalance of 79% sell side and looks like decent size for sale. The closing imbalance showed a moderate $528M net to sell. The cash close traded 1650.50 area before settling at 1650.60, up 5.7 handles on the day.
Osafum posted: The real Hindenburg omen is not technical crush of stock market. The real omen was the rise of Hitler despite in German democratic system after death of then German president Hindenburg. In those days the more stock declined, the more people divided into communism and anti-communism. then what happen? http://o.aolcdn.com/hss/storage/fss/a7c387c1e8fd59ee10f84eeb0e30ffef/LT%25201930-40.gif
Sam_E yes i have a note on my screen that says in big bold letters. THE PIT IS REAL. EVERYTHING ELSE IS BS. there is a real difference between pit highs and lows and the ones on your chart. know the difference. the pit rules the roost. the pit plays in the real world. globex is the dream world. We agree with Sam!
